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Category: Boris

The most accurate pollster at the Euros has Hunt rated better than Boris when compared with Corbyn

The most accurate pollster at the Euros has Hunt rated better than Boris when compared with Corbyn

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New Ipsos-MORI focuses, inevitably, on the CON leadership race. These are some key findings: Both Hunt and Johnson have improved since May in terms of the proportion of people agreeing they ‘have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister.’ 31% agree that Hunt ‘has what it takes’ (+12 points since May) and 34% agree that Johnson ‘has what it takes’ (+9 points). However, more disagree that Johnson has what it takes (53%) than Jeremy Hunt (42%). This means that overall…

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Johnson edges back to being an even stronger favourite on the Betfair exchange

Johnson edges back to being an even stronger favourite on the Betfair exchange

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange His “bus painting hobby” has moved the agenda on Maybe because we are getting closer to the ballot packs going out and Johnson appears to have survived the Camberwell apartment crisis but we are now seeing a move back to him and away from Hunt in the next CON leader betting. Essentially there’s little more in the story and Johnson’s “painting model buses” interview, however bizarre, has been his dead cat on…

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Johnson appears to be planning to ignore parliament if it sought to block a no deal Brexit

Johnson appears to be planning to ignore parliament if it sought to block a no deal Brexit

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Dangerous stuff from the wannabe PM Re-reading Johnson interview, he appears to imply he would ignore parliament if it voted against no deal "It would be up to the prime minister of the day. I have myself to decide under the current terms of the extension that we have to apply for such an extension" pic.twitter.com/eGxEqdFsfv — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 25, 2019

The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

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Professor Brian Cox was once asked to explain string theory in a sentence. His answer: “It’s probably not true.” The same one sentence explanation could be used to explain the theory that the next Conservative leader might not become Prime Minister. But since it’s being talked about quite a bit, let’s have a look at why. The current Parliament was elected at a general election held on 8 June 2017. It resulted in a hung Parliament. It is forgotten now,…

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If the CON race continues to be about character them it might be a lot closer than anybody thought

If the CON race continues to be about character them it might be a lot closer than anybody thought

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When at the launch of the Boris campaign a fortnight ago the Sky journalist, Beth Rigby, sought to raise the question of character she got loudly booed by many of those attending. It was the same yesterday at the the first hustings in Birmingham when Iain Dale sought to raise the issue that’s been dominating the news with Johnson. This didn’t come over well on TV. Yet that is now what the campaign is becoming about and it is hard…

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Johnson’s position is holding up well on the betting markets where he’s now an 82% chance to succeed TMay

Johnson’s position is holding up well on the betting markets where he’s now an 82% chance to succeed TMay

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange movements Political punters, those who risk their cash trying to predict political outcomes, haven’t changed their view of Johnson’s chances of becoming the next CON leader and PM and is still a solid odds-on favourite to succeed TMay. The events of Thursday night and what’s happened since have had an impact, as can be seen by the chart, but not that much. Those gambling on Betfair £11m TMay succession market don’t think it will impact…

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For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

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Never before has a party membership chosen a PM We are now at a unique stage in British political history when the members of a particular party will by postal ballot decide who the next prime minister shall be. The decisions that members will take are of a different magnitude from other party leadership contests. So we need to see new “final two” CON member polling to establish whether there has been any shift now that we know which two…

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Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

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CON leadership vote 3rd round of MPsGove 51Hunt 54Javid 38Johnson 143Stewart 27 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019 So Tory MPs exclude the contender most likely to reach out to centre ground voters. Crazy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019