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Category: Boris

The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

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Time to be betting that Johnson is bluffing? The Betdata.io chart of movements on the Betfair exchange shows how punters are getting more and more convinced that here will be a no deal Brexit in 2019. This covers the past four months when so much has happened in British politics and no doubt things will be even more turbulent in the weeks ahead. At the moment I’m not convinced enough to bet. The huge down-side of a no deal exit,…

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It took 330 days before TMay’s “best PM” rating dropped below 40% – Boris has done it within a fortnight

It took 330 days before TMay’s “best PM” rating dropped below 40% – Boris has done it within a fortnight

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Comparing the new man with his predecssor With all the numbers coming out about the new government it is perhaps worth looking at how Johnson and his team are comparing with Theresa May for the period starting when she became prime minister in July 2016. Although the voting intention polling is looking pretty sound for the Conservatives a worry might be the leader ratings that Boris Johnson has been getting since assuming the keys of number 10. One question pollsters…

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Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

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In all the reactions to the Times front page about the possibility of Johnson staying on as PM even if Parliament passes a VoNC in him and prefers someone else who can command the House, two absences were notable: (1) no immediate denial by No 10; and (2) no outrage by the official Opposition at the prospect of what would seem to be an appalling breach of normally understood conventions, moreover ones which would normally benefit the opposition. After all,…

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Another set of PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory

Another set of PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory

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Generally when PMs are replaced during a parliament the new person gets a boost in their leader ratings which I have long regarded as a better indicator of the political weather than voting intention polls. With BJohnson, only two weeks now into the job, things have been very different. Opinium had him on a net minus 3% in its approval ratings. Ipsos-MORI which asks how satisfied people are the mew CON leader and PM came out with minus 7%. Now,…

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Nothing up my sleeve

Nothing up my sleeve

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Boris Johnson has been Prime Minister for under a fortnight and he has immediately put his imprint on government. Boris Johnson is seeking to play hardball with the EU over revising the withdrawal agreement’s terms. He has made no attempt to charm his putative negotiating partners, refusing to talk with them until it is accepted that the backstop is dead. Indeed it is not at all clear who in Brussels currently could negotiate with him, given that the new Commission president has not…

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It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

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For reference the result from GE2017 How other new PMs fared Tonight could be very interesting for political historians. This is the numbers of days in office before each Prime Minister lost a seat in a by-election.#BreconandRadnorshire pic.twitter.com/0teZ4tngfo — Kevin Lang (@kevin_lang) August 1, 2019 The Brexit Party plane pulling a flying banner over the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency where polls close in the by-election at 10pm pic.twitter.com/zX7x6IOppj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2019

BJohnson’s first Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings in NEGATIVE territory

BJohnson’s first Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings in NEGATIVE territory

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The historical comparisons don’t look good As well as the Ipsos voting numbers we have the firm’s satisfaction ratings which it has been asking in the same form since the 1970s. This means that there are records going  back decades and we can easily make comparisons. From the helpful chart above BJohnson becomes the first PM to take over mid-parliament with a negative rating – that is fewer people were satisfied with him than were dissatisfied.  This might not be…

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The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn

The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn

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Latest @IpsosMORI with changes on GE2017CON 34% (-9.5)LAB 24% (-17)LDs 20% (+12.4)BREX 9% (+9) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2019 Chart Evening Standard The Evening Standard in its reporting of the latest Ipsos-MORI poll leads on what is increasingly becoming a difficult narrative for the red team – their position in the post BJohnson voting polls and the very weak leader ratings their man has. The paper notes: The Ipsos MORI survey found 62 per cent of Britons now…

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