The historical comparisons don’t look good
As well as the Ipsos voting numbers we have the firm’s satisfaction ratings which it has been asking in the same form since the 1970s. This means that there are records going back decades and we can easily make comparisons.
From the helpful chart above BJohnson becomes the first PM to take over mid-parliament with a negative rating – that is fewer people were satisfied with him than were dissatisfied. This might not be a good position to be planning an early general election
I’ve long regarded standardised leader ratings like this as a much better indication of electoral campaigns than voting intention polling as was shown at GE1992 and GE2015 when the pollsters had a pretty poor time.
The main consolation for BJohnson is that the leader of the opposition, JCorbyn, continues to have appalling numbers. A total of 69% said they were dissatisfied and just 19% satisfied. This is slightly better than last month but he continues to have the worst opposition leader numbers ever.