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Category: BNP

Are OTHERS set to do well on May 3rd?

Are OTHERS set to do well on May 3rd?

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David Herdson asks: Is now their best chance to breakthrough? The nature of George Galloway’s victory in Bradford West might have been a one-off but the anti-politics mood it fed off is present far more widely. Mike has recently made timely observations that the combined net approval scores for the three leaders with YouGov is at what is probably a record low of -121%, and that despite a rapid drop in government economic trust figures, Labour has barely benefited except…

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Opinion polls and postal voting

Opinion polls and postal voting

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The piece by Anthony Wells on postal voting and opinion polls on UKPR is a good reminder that things can now get a bit complex given that perhaps one in five of all votes will be made by post. What happens when the pollster calls or someone fills in an internet form when they have already voted? Almost all the firms adapt their voting intention question to take into account this possibility but they cannot report them separately. As Anthony…

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Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

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Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…

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Is Labour’s plan to big-up the BNP?

Is Labour’s plan to big-up the BNP?

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Will this get the core vote out in the marginals? On the latest Radio 4’s Any Questions the schools secretary, Ed Balls, made a revealing comment on what I took to be part of Labour’s defence strategy in the marginals. When being pressed over UNITE’s financial support for Labour including his own seat on the outskirts of Leeds he replied: ” “Unite members make contributions from their pay packets to help the fight against the BNP…..”. That helped him handle…

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What happens if there is no GREEN/UKIP/BNP standing?

What happens if there is no GREEN/UKIP/BNP standing?

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How would the vote split? Lots of talk today about how many candidates the “others” – GREEN/UKIP/BNP – will actually have standing in the election. UKIP looks as though it will have in excess of 500 but the other two parties are probably going to fall short by quite a distance. With this segment running quite high in a number of polls the question is how would this go if potential voters have not got someone to support in their…

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Will “others”, UKIP/GRN/BNP, really get a boost from this?

Will “others”, UKIP/GRN/BNP, really get a boost from this?

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Or will they be squeezed out in the Dave-Gord encounter? The general view ahead of the June 2009 Euro elections was that the parties that would gain most from the expenses scandal, which dominated the headlines for the weeks beforehand, would be UKIP, the Greens and the BNP. And so it was. UKIP easily beat Labour for second place in the national vote, the Greens had a good election while the BNP secured two seats at the EU parliament for…

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Has ICM adopted PB’s turnout weighting plan?

Has ICM adopted PB’s turnout weighting plan?

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Is this putting the squeeze on the “others”? Well done to Anthony Wells as UKPollingReport for spotting this but ICM seem to have introduced a significant methodology change in this week’s Guardian poll which looks as though it will reduce the shares it reports for UKIP/BNP/GRN. For the firm has introduced a change that I’ve been pressing for since 2007 – that greater weight be given when assessing likelihood to vote to those respondents who have a record of voting….

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Has Labour got most to lose from polarisation?

Has Labour got most to lose from polarisation?

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YouGov How will it split as the share for “others” gets smaller? Following Tuesday’s thread on the decline in poll shares for the other parties a key question is who will benefit the most? For working out where these votes will go could be the key element in predicting what is going to happen on the day and whether Labour will be able to stop Cameron’s Tories from forming a majority government. A problem is that there’s so little polling…

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