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The Pennsylvania count looks set to go onto into next week but punters are convinced Biden’s won

The Pennsylvania count looks set to go onto into next week but punters are convinced Biden’s won

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Chart – Betdata.io It is perhaps worth restating that the reason why the Pennsylvania count is going on for so long is that there was a deliberate decision of the Republican controlled state authority to operate it that way. With so many voters choosing to cast their ballots by post the majority of states arranged postal ballots be processed as they came in in the weeks before the election. Not so in Pennsylvania where the state decided that nothing should…

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As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House

As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House

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It is morning now on the east coast of the US and the counting continues. In Georgia Biden is now ahead while in Pennsylvania the gap has sharply narrowed. This is in contrast to Arizona where Biden’s lead has been narrowing. Essentially Pennsylvania will be the key and it is important to note that the narrative would have been entirely different in the state if early votes had been counted first. Instead the Republican controlled state body forbid any effort…

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The WH2020 count goes on with still no sign of a resolution

The WH2020 count goes on with still no sign of a resolution

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Could we know by the end of the day? The screen grab above is from Georgia – one of they states where there’s just a possibility of a Biden victory which, if it happens, could lead to the media at least calling the overall result of the election. On the Betfair exchange betting continues at a fair pace and so far the total matched bets is just short of £500m – half a BILLION pounds. On top of that are…

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WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory

WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory

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Based on what we have at the moment it looks more likely that Biden will be the next president than Trump. The balance of remaining votes in most of the key states are probably more likely to go to the challenger than the incumbent and the UK betting markets continue to rate Biden as the strong odds on favourite. He’s currently an 83% chance. Whether this will be resolved by the weekend we don’t know.

Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes clearer

Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes clearer

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One of the aspects of this election that has only become apparent during the day is that information coming Biden’s three primary targets, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan has been impacted by decisions of their Republican controlled state legislatures to forbid any counting of the mass of advance votes before the election day. The result has been that the main data coming out has been based on the on the day voting information with the mail ballots being sidelined. That’s all…

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