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Category: Betting

Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term

Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term

In recent weeks Joe Biden’s struggles up the stairs of Air Force One attracted much comment from his opponents and critics. It is a bit of an awkward watch, for some reason it reminded me of Ed Miliband’s inability to eat a bacon sandwich. But Biden’s critics seem to be pushing various memes about Biden being weak and physically unfit to be President, if you want to bet on Biden not lasting the full term Ladbrokes have a market up…

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At last – I am able to have a holiday

At last – I am able to have a holiday

Like millions of others I feel as though I’ve been cooped up in my home office for more than a year. Well I’m going on holiday to North Northumberland in the morning returning in a week to get my second jab. I cannot tell you how much I am looking forward to waking up and have the above view from the bedroom window. PB will be in the capable hands of TSE. This has been a remarkable and sometimes uncomfortable…

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The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections

The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections

With maybe 60% of people voting in this way the timing could be crucial Because of the ongoing impact of the pandemic it is estimated by the Tory elections’ expert, Lord Hayward, that the total of postal votes from the May 6th elections could touch be in the region of 50-60% of all the votes that are cast. The big element here is that once someone has popped their ballot into the post then there is nothing they can do…

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More than 80 days into the job and Biden’s approval ratings stay very strong

More than 80 days into the job and Biden’s approval ratings stay very strong

The above chart from Nate Silver’s site show how remarkable strong Biden’s approval ratings have been since becoming President on January 20th. I’ve got a little bet on that he’ll still be in the 50-55% range on his 100 day in office on January 20th. To put them into context during his entire four years as President Trump never made it above 50%. Of course Biden came to power at a critical stage and his government has overseen a massive…

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Parliament must return in person and permanently

Parliament must return in person and permanently

Impressions be damned: governance is even more important Parliament will return from its Easter recess on Monday to allow MPs to make tributes to the late Duke of Edinburgh. It is right that they can do so. Most, however, will continue to dial in via videoconferencing; few will be in the chamber. That is no longer right. Politics is an intensely human business and proximity is power. One reason that the government has been able to act as if there…

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If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

Currently he’s a 4% betting chance while she’s a 35% one There seems to be a widespread assumption in the betting that should Joe Biden not be running for the 2024 nomination then Kamala Harris will almost automatically be the chosen one. This is reflected in the betting odds where I believe Buttigieg is under priced and Harris is overpriced. A big reason, I would suggest, is that Buttigieg’s role as US Transportation Secretary is going to give him significantly…

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My email from Boris suggests the Tory database is not as sophisticated as you might expect

My email from Boris suggests the Tory database is not as sophisticated as you might expect

I have never quite worked out why the CCHQ have me on their database as a supporter and potential donor. Back in October 2009 I did attend a local public event where David Cameron was the speaker and I reported this on PB. To get entry I had to supply my email address. What I cannot understand is why I am still on the list having not responded to anything at all that might be construed as showing support. At…

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