The “99%” certain CON gain according to the exit poll At about 4pm on election night in December 2019 I decided to call it a day and try to get some sleep. Before I did I checked if my own result in Bedford had come in and the BBC website suggested the count was still going on but that this was a “99% certain Tory gain” according to the exit poll. Well that was pretty emphatic and I didn’t bother…
Don’t let the bookies get away Scot free. Nota bene, for the purposes of this piece ‘wildcat referendum’ refers to a plebiscite held without a section 30 order. With life starting to get back some sort of normality I expect the usual political issues to rear their collective and individual heads soon. Primus inter pares is likely to be Scottish independence where in May the Indyref2 movement secured a majority at Holyrood. This piece isn’t looking at the result of…
As has been widely reported there’s a YouGov/S Times poll of “blue wall” seats to see the change since GE2019. The outcome is not good for the Tories and suggests that it might be challenging holding on to them and red wall ones at the same time. With the Tories dropping 8% and LAB going up by 4% that equates to a CON to LAB swing of 6%. The Tory seats chosen for the poll all voted Remain at the…
The Tories cannot go into the next election with 5m on the list One of the inevitable consequences of dealing with COVID has been the impact on those who have wanted the NHS for other reasons who are currently on waiting lists of one sort or another. It is estimated that there are 5m currently on them and this could be increasing all the time. Inevitably the primary focus has been on controlling the infection but as that pressure eases…
7 years ago this month the Independent Inquiry into Child Sex Abuse was first announced. Cameron was PM, May Home Secretary and the Brexit referendum not even the teensiest cloud on the horizon. How time flies! After three Chairs, the Inquiry – under the chairmanship of its 4th Head, Professor Alexis Jay (who wrote the report on child abuse in Rotherham, published in August 2014) – has been quietly taking evidence and publishing a series of heart-breaking and devastatingly critical…
Of all the institutions in the UK to get into a fight with then the RNLI is surely the one ministers would be best advised to keep well away from. Their job is often to risk their lives in order to save lives and the goodwill they have built up over a century and more is colossal. This is shown in the huge amount , £175m+, that the charity receives each year in legacies and other donations. The public buy…
Could Tory punters be over-estimating their leader One of the big political betting features of the past couple of months is how much the betting markets over-stated Tory chances of retaining Chesham & Amersham and taking Batley & Spen. For long periods with the former there was a lot of money going the Tories as a 95% chance and even on the eve of the election you could have got 10/1 or better with Betfair on the LDs. This was…