Leadership favourite Rishi in 5th place As we pointed out here the September CONHome Cabinet rankings seemed to be a good indicator of who would get sacked in the re-shuffle and who would do well. We have now got the latest figures which once again have Liz Truss right at the top with Grant Shapps now taking bottom place with Patel not far above. BoJo himself is six from bottom. Of course there is no leadership vacancy and BoJo looks…
Laat week the innovative betting exchange, Smarkets, had a market for a by-election for Hetton on Sunderland council which appeared part of a strategy to have regular betting markets that would be resolved in a matter of days rather than years. Well the firm has followed through with a market on this week’s Cranleigh E by election for Waverley Borough in Surrey. This is a straight fight between the Tories and the LDs who are now the odds on favourite….
But LAB still well down on GE2017 We have now got the first YouGov MRP polling of this parliament which focuses on the so called “Red Wall” seats which were the foundation of BoJo’s big victory at GE2019. This is from the YouGov report: YouGov data shows the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck in the so called ‘Red Wall’ of pivotal Northern, Midlands, and North Wales constituencies. A multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of constituency vote intention shows that the…
I dug out the above polling over the weekend after getting into a discussion on Twitter with Owen Jones and others about my firm view that negative perceptions of Corbyn were the main driver of Johnson’s landslide at GE2019. The Opinium election day poll sought to establish what was driving votes and the chart sets this out clearly region by region. Cobynistas seem to have two things they want to talk about – how well their man did at GE2017…
One defection would be the most surprising defection since Quentin Davies left the Conservative Party and joined Gordon Brown’s Labour Party, three at the same time would be extraordinary. The last time a sitting MP defected from Labour to the Conservative Party was before I was born when Reg Prentice defected in 1977. In my experience Labour Party members and MPs are most unlikely to defect to the Tory scum, that there’s three of them pondering defecting at the same…
So as is usual it is the Tories who hold the last of the main party conferences and the party always follows immediately after Labour. I wonder whether after Johnson has made his final speech on Wednesday morning whether this chart will look different. The big difference for the Tories is that they are the party of government and can make policy announcements that can actually be implemented, This is why there is likely to be a bigger media presence…
After last weekend the EU can finally stop putting off decisions until after the German election and start putting them off until after the French election. Very much on the horizon, voters go to the polls in April 2022 to determine if Emmanuel Macron will win a second term or who his replacement will be. A brief refresher: The French presidential election uses a two round system. If no candidate wins 50% in the 1st round (and no-one ever does)…
Although there has been no polling uplift for LAB since Starmer’s big speech on Wednesday those betting on who will be next PM have edged back to Starmer and he is now clear favourite in the “Next PM” betting. The Betdata.io chart above shows the movement over the past six months and as can be seen less than two months ago he was being rated at an 11.8% chance. At 1345 today he was a 23% chance which is quite…