This morning many households in North Shropshire received their first leaflet, see above, of the by-election from the LDs which is pretty fast work given the vacancy was created only a few days ago. Although the party came third in the seat at GE2019 they were in second place at last May’s local elections and seem to be making this their priority. At this stage in the campaign, the party is seeking to establish itself as the main challenger. An…
As we saw last night the latest Opinium poll for the Observer has Johnson dropping to his worst net approval ratings ever since becoming PM. I thought it might be useful to look to see if there is a regional difference in the change in his ratings. The chart above compares last night’s poll with the approval ratings in mid-May when the PM was enjoying the full benefit of his vaccine boost As can be seen it is the Midlands…
Earlier today I did an online poll which I assume will be published in one of the Sunday papers focused on one big issue – Paterson and perceptions of corruption within the Tory party. My guess is that there could be several such surveys out as those papers that only have a chance to report things once a week, the “Sundays”, try to find a suitable exclusive angle for themselves. There’s little doubt that the events of the past few…
After the Virginia Gubernatorial election ends over a decade of straight Democrat wins in the state, one question looms large. Is this a taster of what will happen at the Midterms? Very probably it is. Democrats have a very narrow path to retain the House, and should be considered solid underdogs to hold their 50 Senate seats*. America is the posterchild for the hyperpartisan era. We focus on the swings, but the real story is the consistency. Take Presidential Election…
As can be seen from the chart of Betfair’s Boris exit date market there has been a little bit of movement in the past 24 hours with 2022 moving from an 18% chance yesterday to a 24% chance now. Over the same period, 2024 or later edged down from a 58% chance to a 54% one. The thing that is always said about how long he’ll be in Number 10 is that his salary as PM is nowhere what he…
The YouGov poll in today’s Times is the first test of public opinion that we have had since the Patison crisis emerged. As can be seen the Tory share is down to 36% a move that is driven by more than a fifth of GE2019 CON voters saying don’t know. The polling takes place amidst very special circumstances and the question is will it be prolonged or will those not ready to say Conservative now swingback slowly in the next…
Maybe a CON win in Old Bexley & Sidcup is not the certainty it appears? While all eyes have been on the Patison affair four weeks tonight we should be getting the result of Old Bexley and Sidcup by election which looks like a certain CON hold. I can’t see the LDs or LAB getting an upset but Reform, which used to be UKIP, are taking it very seriously indeed. Their candidate is the party’s presentable leader Richard Tice who…