Other polls are expected in the next few days and the big thing is whether or not they support the Survation trend. Clearly, this has been a difficult period for the government which is attracting a lot of media coverage. I stand to be corrected but a 6% Labour lead is the best for the party since GE2019.
A reaction “Do as we say not do”? A week today the Tories will be defending the by-election – a seat they won with a majority of 40%+ over LAB at GE2019 when the LDs were in third place – 53% behind the Tories. That the LDs should be in contention is remarkable in itself but Ed Davey’s party decided to target it even before Owen Paterson had resigned. Initially, they put the resources in the expectation that Paterson would…
The morning after doesn’t look any better The big question now for Conservative MP’s is whether they think the party can recover if Johnson stays as leader. My view and I’m sure that is shared by many on the site is that there is a point of no return and that has been reached. Once it has been concluded that this has been a turning point for the party then surely we should expect some action to be taken. The…
Even some of Boris Johnson own MPs believe this narrative, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, Boris Johnson’s credibility amongst his own MPs will be shot. I’d love to see a betting market on the size of the Conservative rebellion next week. I predicted that Boris Johnson’s political authority would evaporate over the shameless and shameful bid to save Owen Paterson, I didn’t expect it to happen quite so soon. What must alarm Tory MPs is just how…
Allegra Stratton quits The big news this afternoon is that Allegra Stratton has quit. This follows the video of her issued last night. We can also expect a number of polls on the revelations about the Number 10 Party last year when severe lockdown provisions were in place. In many ways it has been remarkable that it is only now that this has become public and there is little doubt that video clip shown last night is damaging. In the…
This should have been a very big day for BJ’s government because it is the first anniversary of the launch of the UK’s vaccine programme in which the country was a world leader. No doubt plans were in hand to maximise the positive impact for the government and get the subject over what is now being called #PartyGate. A year ago it was the vaccine that was the great success story for BJ and his ministers and we saw over…
In face of the chaotic last six years in British politics, it can be easy to lose sight of a constant phenomenon: governing parties do not defend by-election seats very well. Since 1979, governing parties have had to defend 65 seats in parliamentary by-elections but have only managed to win just under half of them (30). Of these 65 seats, Conservative governments have had to defend 43, winning an even lower proportion with 14 (33%). In fact, more Liberal Democrat…