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The ONS reported in October 2021 that “the total fertility rate for England and Wales in 2020 fell to 1.58 children per woman, the lowest since records began in 1938.” Contrary to predictions of a baby boom, conceptions during the first COVID lockdown fell and didn’t begin to pick up until after restrictions were eased. What happens to fertility rates post-COVID remains to be seen. As a student of politics, it’s a subject that I’ve always been curious about. To…

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2021 was a great year for Westminster by-elections with five contests taking place in England and three of them resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. In overall terms the Tories and LAB have come out with one fewer seat each while the LDs have gained two. Arguably the most significant result was not one of the seats to have changed hands but Labour’s successful defence, by a small margin, of Batley and Spen. Given that they’d lost Hartlepool to…

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As regular readers will know, I’m very much a disciple of Philip Tetlock and his Superforecasting approach. Forecasting is hard, and human beings are bad at it. But we can get better and more clear-eyed about the future by following a proper approach. If you read Superforecasting, Tetlock’s book, news articles he’s contributed to, or listen to the numerous podcast appearances he has made, you cannot fail to note his #1 rule of becoming a better forecaster: Keep score. By…

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It is the last day of the year I thought it might be good to have a few posts just looking back at how the data has changed. My first chart is based on the regular YouGov well badly ratings that are asked at least once a month when respondents are simply asked the question about whether they think the PM is doing well or badly. As can be seen he started with negative numbers but this crept up to…

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Part One – The bet Earlier this year, several PBers, including OGH, bet on there being a Labour lead by the end of the year.  (They won, because of the opinion poll covered here.  Well done!).   More recently, Smarkets has established a market on the prospects of a Conservative lead by end of January (covered here).  But this bet (‘the bet’) is perhaps the most interesting out there from a theoretical point of view.   When it offers good value is…

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LAB voters are now more likely to vote tactically One of the big political developments of 2021 has been the re-emergence of the LDs as an electoral force. Winning Chesham and Amersham in June always looked like an easier task given the party started in second place, C&A voted Remain and it was in striking distance of party strongholds on the M25 making it easier for them to flood the seat with activists during the campaign. North Shropshire was a…

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