politicalbetting.com

Nobody talks about it, but electoral reform is all the rage these days. Maine adopted AV (or, as they call it, Ranked Choice Voting) in 2018 for all statewide offices. The Tories are changing mayoral elections from SV to FPTP. And in Alaska an unusual system could have big implications for this year’s senate race. Alaska has merged AV and the ‘Jungle Primary’ system used by California into a unique system which works as follows: All candidates, from all parties…

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Latest from the betting markets

No doubt at all what dominates the papers this morning and each one covers in their own way Putin’s use of force to take over a European democracy. Apart from tougher sanctions it is hard to see what the international community can do short of war with a nuclear power. The big hope must be that Putin gets toppled by his own people. Mike Smithson

The one betting market that has moved following the overnight news about the invasion of Ukraine has been the above one on when Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister. Clearly, this would not appear to be a good time for Tory MPs to pursue a no-confidence vote which is just about the only way he is going to shift. A confidence vote followed by a leadership election is simply not on at the moment. All this puts into perspective…

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Sunak drops in next PM betting while Starmer moves up

Following on from the previous post and the troubles that Le Pen appears to be having getting onto April’s French Presidential ballot I’ve been betting this morning that the final two will not be Macron + Le Pen. This bet could be a winner even if Le Pen manages to get on the ballot. She would then have to make the top two in the first round of voting in April for this to be a loser. I’m also betting…

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