One thing that really boosts Johnson in his current position is that there is no obvious person there to replace him as we see from the betting chart above. This of course all changed with the massive decline of the Sunak in March and since then no one has really emerged to perhaps take his place. As can be seen in the betting there are 5 contenders who are rated as having an 8% or greater chance of becoming the…
Leader candidates have to be MPs I have made this point repeatedly before but nothing drives me mad more at the moment than those who are betting on Andy Burnham as the successor to Keir Starmer. Burnham is of course the mayor of Greater Manchester and the only way he could be nominated for the Labour leadership is if he became an MP by the time of the next leadership election. Assuming SKS does go some friendly Labour MP might…
But will other pollsters back it up? This is by far the best poll for the Tories for sometime and as ever the question is whether it is an outlier or not. Other recent polls have had with much bigger margins including R&W where all the fieldwork took place yesterday. Time will tell. Mike Smithson
Perhaps the best analysis is in the Financial Times which notes under the heading – Keir Starmer’s gamble could be the making of him. If he escapes a fine — as he seems sure he will — he can show himself to be a man of principle. He will be defined in the public mind as someone who believes in obeying the rules and will stand in sharp contrast to a prime minister who does not. He is the dry…
So all those negative Mail front pages have zero effect The fieldwork all took place today.
TSE
Yesterday I speculated that Starmer would quit if he received a fixed penalty notice, I based this on the unmatched high levels of personal integrity that lawyers have, coupled with his high sense of ethics that DPPs need, and the fact of the criticisms Starmer has rightly launched at Boris Johnson for his repeated lockdown breaches. Starmer is tune with the public as this YouGov poll shows, although Beergate appears not to have damaged Starmer’s rating at YouGov. The cynic…