politicalbetting.com

Light the beacons of Gondor, it turns out Boris Johnson was telling the truth last month, an event rarer than a decent Radiohead album, the BBC report that Boris Johnson had signed up enough MPs to mount a challenge to Rishi Sunak for the Conservative leadership, senior Tory Sir Graham Brady has confirmed. Mr Johnson dramatically pulled out of the race amid speculation he did not have the 100 nominations needed. But Sir Graham, who runs Tory leadership contests, said…

Read More Read More

The big political betting markets at the moment are on next Tuesday’s midterm elections when the big issue will be whether the Democrats will lose control of the Senate. At the moment it is a 50-50 split with the VP, Kamala Harris, having the casting vote. A loss of House control looks pretty certain. The Democrats have got to get through the elections without any net losses to maintain this position and some of the polls have been moving against…

Read More Read More

It is early days yet of course but so far Sunak does not seem to have had any impact on the next general election betting. Maybe this is because his arrival has been what the market has expected for well over a year. This will change of course and the new leader’s first big priority is to try to turn the polling situation aiming at least to get the Tory deficit down to single figures. What we do know about…

Read More Read More

The charts from NBC show the early voting data from three states that could be crucial in the mid-term election on Tuesday. The party numbers are based on those who have registered their party affiliation on the state databases. These do not mean that votes have actually been cast for the specified parties but if I was a Democratic strategist at the moment I would take a little bit of comfort from this information. Having been laying the Republicans for…

Read More Read More

We are just 4 days off the November 8th Midterm elections in the United States when the Democrats will be defending their majority in the House of Representatives and hoping to maintain the edge in the Senate. There are also hundreds of state and local contests taking place. The generic ballot polling question which sums up the broad changing mood in America is featured in the chart above and as can be seen in recent days there has been a…

Read More Read More

But still a long way behind

A gift to his opponents at the general election? We have to keep on remembering that Sunak is relatively new to politics which may explain some of his approaches. Announcing that he wasn’t going to go to the COP climate change conference in Egypt but then reversing it inevitably is going to be portrayed as a U-turn and having a reputation for u-turns comes at a price. This latest move that some of the pledges he made during his leadership…

Read More Read More