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October 19th sees two by-elections, both in similarly safe Tory seats. The bookies (and presumably punters) rate the Tory chances as fairly different in the two seats. I’m not sure that’s right. Tamworth and Mid Beds certainly have their differences. Tamworth is a Midlands seat which heavily backed leave with an estimated 66% of their vote, whereas Mid Beds is a more affluent southern seat which is estimated to have voted leave by 53% – almost exactly the national average….

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Whoever is advising Sunak, they are advising him badly. I was struck by this tidbit in today’s Sunday Times. MPs understand Sunak’s approach but believe he has been too indulged by his aides, who have let him write his own slogan (“long-term decisions for a brighter future”) and sell himself as he pleases. A member of Vote Leave said: “It’s not exactly ‘take back control’ or ‘get Brexit done’, is it?” This is a prime minister who is happiest mired…

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That world cloud from Savanta was published earlier on this week and it looks not only damaging for the Tories as the next general election but for a generation in the same way the Tories successfully used the winter of discontent for over a decade to win four general elections in a row. The news that broke on Friday evening that Sunak’s cost saving exercise on HS2 could end up costing more and the HS2 extension to Euston may not…

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With Israel and Gaza totally dominating the news agenda it prompts my own personal memories of the area particularly because it was in Gaza City that I first met my wife, Jacky. This was in 1968 the year after the six day war when both of us were on a trip for students that had been organised by a body that existed to get backing for the then relatively new state of Israel. We had flown in overnight and Gaza…

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