In the WH2024 betting a recent mover has been Niki Haley – the former Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the UN. She. is now second to Trump in the nomination betting and is starting to get more media attention. Many Republicans are now seeing her as the one who could replace Trump as the nominee for next year’s election. This is a massive ask of her and the polling continues to show that Trump is doing very…
I’m not sure the public would want Boris Johnson to run a whelk stall let alone the country. One of the more cutting remarks I heard about Boris Johnson, which turns out to be more accurate with each passing day, is that Boris Johnson is what plebs think an intellectual looks and sounds like, throwing a classical historical reference or a bit of Latin doesn’t mean you’re clever. When it comes to Boris Johnson return as Prime Minister, alea jacta…
The last poll that the Tories on 30% or higher was the More In Common, conducted on the 14th to the 16th of October. Being stuck in the 20s for a month constitutes a rut. If the Autumn statement doesn’t improve the Tory vote share then I suspect then the next opportunity will be the budget next spring which I expect to be a tax cut bonanza. Make your prediction in the comments on when the Tories will be back…
Smarkets have this market up on the next general election on out of the SNP and the Lib Dems, who will win the most seats. I can understand why the Lib Dems are the favourites in this market but I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP won this market. Whilst this has been an annus horribilis for the SNP, particularly for the past and present leadership, with the Westminster voting intention polls (and the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election) that…
I have been wondering for a while that Labour could be damaged by recent events in the Middle East and this poll is further proof of that hypothesis being proven. Like many things Starmer might be being shielded by how badly the Tories are doing both in absolute and relative terms to Labour and the fact events in the Middle East might not have the same salience on election day compared to today. On election day I cannot see many…
It was late and great American rapper The Notorious B.I.G. who sang ‘Mo Money, Mo Problems’ and I wonder if Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt might be thinking the same as The Notorious B.I.G. Because of the fiscal headroom has increased by nearly £14 billion since March there is demand for tax cuts from the cosplaying Thatcherites who seem to forget Lady Thatcher only cut taxes after ensuring the public finances were in a sound position which meant taxes went…
PBers will notice that I have not been active recently. Just over a fortnight ago I had a fall which is not a very good thing for someone approaching their 78th birthday. I was in Hospital for several nights (it seemed like an eternity) and hopefully will make a recovery. Next year offers so much in the political betting arena with the high chance of a UK General Election and of course in November the White House Race. I really…
Despite inflating being above the target Rishi Sunak has presented the recent falls in inflation as a success unfortunately it appears the public will not give him any credit. This I suspect fits in a wider issue that is plaguing Sunak, he grates with the public, taking credit it for successes that he really doesn’t deserve, he blamed inflation on world events such as Ukraine, he only wants to take credit it for the good things and nothing for the…