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Picture: Recent vandalism carried out at Donald Trump’s golf course in Scotland. There has been a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to Scottish independence on both sides such as devolution killing Scottish nationalism stone dead or Sir Keir Starmer becoming Malleus ScotNatorum at the 2024 general election. On the other side of the argument, inter alia, Brexit/Boris Johnson as PM/the pandemic/certain Supreme Court rulings would inexorably lead to Scottish independence and perhaps my headline will join that ignominious…

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As Lord Ashcroft can attest by-election polling can be very challenging so I always remain sceptical about all by-election polling but there are some hope for both Reform and Labour in the supplementaries. Best PM polling usually has an incumbency bias so is only notable when somebody other than the incumbent PM leads so Nigel Farage will be chuffed to have a clear lead in the constituency. Labour will be encouraged that most people in the seat expect Labour to…

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The latest polling from Ipsos brings some good news for Sir Keir Starmer with his ratings improving but the most important polling is showing support for rearmament even if it means higher taxes and/or cuts to public services. TSE

When betting on elections outside of America we might now have to start considering the impact of Donald Trump in those elections. We could see some Populist Right party leading in the polls in the UK for years then in the run up to say a 2028 UK general election and Donald Trump could have a real go at Sir Keir Starmer and the UK which leads to an even bigger Labour landslide than in 2024. TSE

It was the economy which won Donald Trump the presidency last year but the way things are going then it won’t be long until Americans start comparing him to a lettuce. TSE

This chart fom Ipsos explains why the Tories and Labour are polling somewhere near/below the test batting average of Geraint Jones. If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box. TSE

I must confess I am a little surprised by this polling, my expectation was that Nigel Farage is seen as an asset by Reform voters but this finding by YouGov will leave Farage feeling sicker than a cyclist with piles. In January there was a poll showing that Nigel Farage had better ratings with Reform voters than Rupert Lowe but this YouGov poll shows that expectation by me was wrong, this could be the consequences of the Rupert Lowe suspension….

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I think the value is with Labour but I wonder if the Reform rammy will not have an impact. I was thinking about the Lib Dems winning the the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election in 2006 despite the party falling apart at the time with Charles Kennedy ousted due to his drinking problem, and two two leadership contenders Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten mired in scandal, the latter was truly epic. We didn’t know it at the time but Chris…

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