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What does the Euro-spat do for the Brown succession? With the leaders of the EU nations returning to their home countries after the deadlock in Brussels there’s speculation this morning that the latest Euro-mess could mean that Tony Blair will have to stay in office longer. According to Andrew Grice in the Independent today ….some Blairites are talking about their man outlasting M. Chirac, who faces re-election in 2007, as well as Mr Schröder, who seems destined for electoral defeat…

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Take the 4/1 on them still being there on January 1 2008 We normally don’t like very long-term bets because it usually involves you locking up your cash for years. Thus there is simply no point taking the 1/4 or 1/5 on Gordon Brown because your return is so small for the time you will be without your cash and there is always the possibility that what appears to be a near-certainty today might look different two years on. There…

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Could Brown have to wait until 2008? Supporters of Gordon Brown and those Labour Party members strongly opposed to Tony Blair will be disappointed this morning by comments by the PM’s close political ally and EU Commissioner, Peter Mandelson, in a TV interview recorded for the Jonathan Dimbleby programme. In the immediate aftermath of May 5th there was strong speculation that Mr. Blair would be going soon and indeed the odds on a 2005 departure got as low as 2/1….

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After the French NON will Blair now serve a full third term? In April last year Tony Blair came under huge criticism for agreeing to a UK referendum on the EU constitution. Many commentators saw the sort-term gain of taking the wind out of Conservatives’ sails ahead of the Euro election campaign but Tony Blair would still have to deliver on the commitment. A prevalent view was that he had made a huge mistake but now the whole treaty issue…

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