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Category: Betting Call

Will Blair outlast Chirac?

Will Blair outlast Chirac?

What does the Euro-spat do for the Brown succession? With the leaders of the EU nations returning to their home countries after the deadlock in Brussels there’s speculation this morning that the latest Euro-mess could mean that Tony Blair will have to stay in office longer. According to Andrew Grice in the Independent today ….some Blairites are talking about their man outlasting M. Chirac, who faces re-election in 2007, as well as Mr Schröder, who seems destined for electoral defeat…

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Will the new rules impede the Davis bandwagon?

Will the new rules impede the Davis bandwagon?

The David Davis price tightens to 4/5 Any idea that the new Tory leadership election rules could impact on the Shadow Home Secretary’s so far undeclared canditure for the Tories leadership have been rejected by gamblers who have pushed his price down even further. The latest odds put Davis in the range of 4/6 to 4/5 and the signs are that this will get tighter. The fact that Tory MPs will get the final say, unilike with IDS last time,…

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Back Blair for another 30 months

Back Blair for another 30 months

Take the 4/1 on them still being there on January 1 2008 We normally don’t like very long-term bets because it usually involves you locking up your cash for years. Thus there is simply no point taking the 1/4 or 1/5 on Gordon Brown because your return is so small for the time you will be without your cash and there is always the possibility that what appears to be a near-certainty today might look different two years on. There…

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No early departure for Blair – Mandelson

No early departure for Blair – Mandelson

Could Brown have to wait until 2008? Supporters of Gordon Brown and those Labour Party members strongly opposed to Tony Blair will be disappointed this morning by comments by the PM’s close political ally and EU Commissioner, Peter Mandelson, in a TV interview recorded for the Jonathan Dimbleby programme. In the immediate aftermath of May 5th there was strong speculation that Mr. Blair would be going soon and indeed the odds on a 2005 departure got as low as 2/1….

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Is David Davis a bigger certainty than Gordon Brown?

Is David Davis a bigger certainty than Gordon Brown?

Do the front-runners justify their prices? If the betting is getting this right then the next General Election will see the Tory Party under David Davis seeking to stop Labour, under Gordon Brown, from securing a record fourth victory. In the Next Tory leader the best you can get on David is now 6/5 with no clear candidate emerging to make an effective challenge. David Cameron is on 6/1 and then Clarke, Lansley, Fox and Hague are on 10/1. In…

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The Great Conjurer does it again

The Great Conjurer does it again

After the French NON will Blair now serve a full third term? In April last year Tony Blair came under huge criticism for agreeing to a UK referendum on the EU constitution. Many commentators saw the sort-term gain of taking the wind out of Conservatives’ sails ahead of the Euro election campaign but Tony Blair would still have to deliver on the commitment. A prevalent view was that he had made a huge mistake but now the whole treaty issue…

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UK Spread-betters put their money on NON by 9%

UK Spread-betters put their money on NON by 9%

The Balance of Money prediction on the French Referendum: NON 54.5 % OUI 45.5% Because French law bans opinion polls on election day and the day before gamblers are having to rely on the surveys that were published on Friday. And even though two of these showed a weakening in the NON position the mood of UK gamblers is to put their money on the treaty being rejected by quite a big margin. IG Index has the current YES spread…

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Which French pollster do you believe?

Which French pollster do you believe?

Is there money to be made on the gap narrowing? Two of the three final polls on the French EU Constitution referendum have shown a slight move back to the YES camp although NO is still firmly ahead. These are the surveys: TNS-Sofres: Oui 49%, Non 51% CSA: Oui 48%, Non 52% Ifop: Oui 44%, Non 56% Although the overall message is that the treaty is going to be rejected there just might be value in a BUY YES bet…

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