Will Blair outlast Chirac?

Will Blair outlast Chirac?

    What does the Euro-spat do for the Brown succession?

With the leaders of the EU nations returning to their home countries after the deadlock in Brussels there’s speculation this morning that the latest Euro-mess could mean that Tony Blair will have to stay in office longer.

According to Andrew Grice in the Independent today ….some Blairites are talking about their man outlasting M. Chirac, who faces re-election in 2007, as well as Mr Schröder, who seems destined for electoral defeat this September. He notes as well that “the economic and political problems facing M. Chirac and the German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder make Mr Blair look like the relatively strong man of Europe”.

Whether this is right there’s little doubt that the abandonment of the UK Euro referendum has taken away the major political event that would have been a convenient moment for Blair to step down.

A good bet in all of this is BetHiLo’s spread on the length of Tony Blair’s third term. The current price is 19-21 months which means that a buy bet would start producing profits in March 2007. This is out of line with the Spreadfair market on the number of weeks that the third term will last. This has 108-117 weeks which takes us into the summer of 2007.

The market from Sporting Index’s off-shoot, BetHiLo, looks like the one to be in but be quick. On Thursday we suggested going for their “Age of the next Tory leader” spread as a cost effective way of backing David David and covering yourself if Clarke or Rifkind made it. The then spread was 50-51.5 years – it is now 51-52.5 years. The firm’s price on David Davis also moved sharply after we said it was great value and you can get out now at a big profit.

Mike Smithson

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