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Category: Betting Call

The 2006 Political Year – the starting prices

The 2006 Political Year – the starting prices

A round-up of the main markets General Election – most seats. Normal bookmakers – LAB 4/7: CON 11/8. Betting exchanges – LAB 0.87/1: CON 1.16/1. IG Binary spread market. LAB 52-58: CON 42-48. Labour has eased considerably since the emergence of David Cameron and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat. On October 10th, we suggested in anticipation of the “Cameron media love-in, that people should sell Labour the exchange price stood at 0.57/1. General Election – Commons seat spreads. Cantor…

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Could Gordon go the way of Dean and Davis?

Could Gordon go the way of Dean and Davis?

Is the Chancellor really a 73.5% certainty? With the long awaited Turner Report on pension due to be published today and the attention focusing again on the Chancellor the PBC index puts his chances of taking over Tony Blair at 73.5%. Our chart shows the the implied probability of him getting the job and is based on best betting prices. The only decision, for the Labour party, it is said, is whether he goes through unopposed or whether there is…

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PB.C “Blair Third Term Index” at 22.7%

PB.C “Blair Third Term Index” at 22.7%

Has the PM turned the corner after the Terror Bill defeat? The collective view of people prepared to risk their money predicting political outcomes is that Tony Blair has a 22.7% chance of completing the majority of a normal third term as Prime Minister. Using implied probabilities based on historical and current betting prices we are making a regular feature of how punters are rating the key political issues. Our first – the betting market assessment of Labour winning most…

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Is this the man who can beat Hilary?

Is this the man who can beat Hilary?

Mark Warner 8/1 for the Democrat nomination and 40/1 to be President Every time we’ve discussed the next US White House race in recent months one of PB.C’s most long-standing contributors, Ben, has advised that a key person to watch for the Democrat nomination is the outgoing Governor of Virginian and former cellphone tycoon, Mark Warner. This always seemed odd because in the regular US polls Warner was not even listed as one of the potential challengers – or was…

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Why I’m betting against the opinion polls

Why I’m betting against the opinion polls

Take the 3/1 against Cameron getting below 66% At the May 5th General Election one of my biggest wins came from betting against the opinion polls. From my analysis I was convinced that they were overstating Labour and I backed my judgment with a four figure amount per unit spread bet. At a time when the likes of ICM, Populus and several others had the party in the 40s I bet that the equivalent of the GB share of the…

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Are you ready for the Cameron media love-in?

Are you ready for the Cameron media love-in?

Could the hype shift the General Election markets? David Cameron’s progress in the past eight days has been staggering and although hurdles remain his political-savvy campaign team are going to do everything they can not to let the current opportunity go. If he does succeed Michael Howard then he’ll be the first party leader ever to have had a background in public relations before entering parliament – a fact not without significance. His day job in the years before the…

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The David Davis lead gets bigger

The David Davis lead gets bigger

Tory Leadership – RED Davis: BLUE Cameron: BLACK Clarke: GREEN Fox ..and a “no-brainer Tory leadership bet Our updated chart showing the implied probabilities of the front-runners in the Tory leadership contest based on the best betting prices available will provide considerable cheer to David Davis supporters – particularly his web cheer leader, the so-called Wat Tyler, who asked specifically for it to be published. The Ken Clarke progress has faltered in the past few days following Davis’s big speech…

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YouGov – Davis and Clarke are neck and neck

YouGov – Davis and Clarke are neck and neck

Revised 1315 Could the members poll that got it right in 2001 be right this time as well? A YouGov poll of Tory party members in the Telegraph this morning shows that the gap between David Davis and Ken Clarke is much closer than the betting odds suggests and that by one measure the former Chancellor is ahead. This poll has to be taken seriously because in 2001 a similar survey by YouGov predicted a 61:39 split between Ian Duncan…

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