Thank you Gord for such a great market This is not something I’ve done before but I was challenged here last week about my betting and I thought I would reproduce part of my trading details on the “Gordon weeks” betting market. What you are doing here is “buying and selling” the number of weeks that Gord’s premiership will last before the general election. As I reported here just a week ago I had taken a view that the Labour…
Should gamblers be betting on Labour moving back into the lead? On November 22nd 2005, just two weeks before David Cameron was crowned as Tory leader Mori was showing Labour with a 42%-32% lead over the Tories. On December 12th, less than a week after the Tory leadership election result, the pollster had a CON-LAB split of 40%-31%. So Cameron’s Mori “bounce” was a staggering 19%. If the arrival of Gordon as leader and Prime Minister was to have the…
Could the Republicans choose a movie actor again? Big moves on the Republican White House ’08 nominee markets following the news this afternoon that the lawyer turned movie actor turned Senator, Fred Thompson looks certain to run. He’s now trading at just over 4/1 and has moved into the third favourite position. The idea that the party, which had its most successful years when ex-actor, Ronald Reagan served two full terms, might choose someone similar has been the cause of…
How prices change in the final few days One of the features covered in my book “The Political Punter” is what happens to betting markets in the final few days before an election when the small body of knowledgeable political gamblers is joined by many in the wider betting community. They tend to follow favourites resulting in the prices of the most fancied options getting tighter and others moving out. So according to the book “If the person or party…
New poll shows the leading candidates are neck and neck Two and a half months ago, just as my book The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics was being finalised, my publishers suggested that I should add a betting guide to the French Presidential election. This put me into a mild panic because the publication date had then been fixed for just five days before the first round of voting and I was being asked to…
When a 1% Tory polling deficit became an 8% lead On the eve of the fifteenth anniversary of John Major’s shock general election victory in 1992 the BBC Parliament channel is devoting most of its bank holiday schedule to showing the BBC’s results programme from that night. It’s available online as well as via Freeview, satellite and cable. It starts at 9am and is repeated at 2pm and 7pm. Even though it’s a decade and a half ago Nick Sparrow,…
This Week – Make Hay from Straw No surprise that we’re leading off this week with man of the moment, Jack Straw. It seems to us he suddenly has everything going for him – campaign leader, the promise of High Office and the opportunity, as a former Foreign Secretary, to pronounce weightily on the Iran crisis. He looks a snip at 76.2. Buy two points. Tony Blair’s rise in the popularity chart shows no sign of stopping. He led us…
Peter Smith reports that Blair Backers are Beaming …again Whether or not it was his performance on Comic Relief, there is no doubt that those who followed our advice to back Blair last week were smiling all the way to the bank. The great showman continued his climb in YouGov’s Popularity poll, reaching his highest score of the year and moving ahead of his Downing Street neighbour…which gives rise to some interesting if somewhat mischievous speculation. What if Our Tone…