Surprisingly the two biggest circulation and arguably most influential politically papers, the Mail and the Sun, do not make in their lead. The former ignores it completely on its front page. Quite what we can read into that I don’t know. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Ladbrokes A prominent Brexiteer in a strong Remain seat The Foreign Secretary and former CON leadership contender, Dominic Raab, has been a rising star in the Tory party and now holds one of the top seats in Johnson’s cabinet. He’s also a strong Brexiteer. There’s nothing wrong with that except that his seat, Esher and Walton, borders the SW London Lib Dem seats of Twickenham and Kingston and at the referendum in 2016 the votes split 41.57% Leave to 58.43%…
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168479741491462144 Leavers have an apparently compelling pair of arguments. Certainly, those arguments completely satisfy them. First, they argue that everyone agreed that the referendum result would be implemented. Secondly, they argue that the wording on the ballot paper was clear, and that all that is required is for Britain to leave the EU. So, what’s the hold-up? It would be churlish to take issue with these arguments. So let me be that churl. For those two arguments are mutually contradictory….
There has been much speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the opposition parties and ex-Tory refuseniks coming together to oust this government and install an interim government, tasked with a very limited role of negotiating an Article 50 extension, promptly followed by a GE. (A variant of this proposal would have the interim government stay in office long enough to call a second EU referendum, but that seems vanishingly unlikely). Like many suggestions for resolving the impasse, this…
Icknield (Luton) result: LAB: 36.7% (-5.6)CON: 35.4% (-8.8)LDEM: 25.6% (+12.1)GRN: 2.3% (+2.3) Labour GAIN from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 26, 2019 We’ve seen big movements in the polls in recent months with Farage’s and the LDs move forward very strongly the latter often near tripling their GE2017 GB vote share of 7.6%. The local by-election above shows how the LD resurgence is going to make general election predictions that much harder. Swinson’s party will go into the election…
While watching the Supreme Court verdict yesterday morning I wondered quite how the strident pro-Brexit tabloids would cover it. We all remember the very powerful Daily Mail front page after the first Gina Miller case in the High Court and I was expecting something along the same lines. Well as can be seen above that hasn’t happened. The Mail links its attacks to Johnson’s comment and the Express reminds us yet against of the 17.4m. The Sun’s front page hardly…
No deal in 2019 drops to an 18% chance Brexit happening in 2019 drops to an 32% chance – was 60%+ UK to leave by October 31st down to a 20% chance How the Supreme Court decision has had an impact Inevitably today has seen a lot of activity on the Brexit linked betting markets as our charts of Betfair movements from Bedata.io show. The broad consensus of punters is that Brexit is less likely to happen in 2019. There’ve…
As we await the Supreme Court decision reflections on what’s happened since it was agreed in early April When the last Article 50 extension was obtained on 10 April, Donald Tusk said: “Please do not waste this time.” So how has Britain used the 167 days since then? Well, it has certainly been busy. There has been no shortage of activity to keep even the most jaded of political journalists interested:- The then Prime Minister entered into discussions with the…