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Category: Article 50

Richard Nabavi says EU leaders should remember European history

Richard Nabavi says EU leaders should remember European history

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Excessive reparations aren’t a good idea Angela Merkel might not, just at the moment, be giving Brexit her full attention, given the difficulty of converting the results of Germany’s September election into a viable coalition government. Nonetheless, Brexit is a big problem for her and for the other EU27 leaders, and one which cannot simply be ignored. European, and especially German, history has important lessons which they should heed. In 1806, Frederick William III of Prussia went to war against…

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Sir Robert Peel and the Corn Laws – the ghost that haunts Theresa May

Sir Robert Peel and the Corn Laws – the ghost that haunts Theresa May

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There is a way to avoid a Crash Brexit – but it’ll destroy May, her party and trust All parties of any age have ghosts that haunt them: spectres from disasters of the past so great that they dare not be forgotten yet dare not be truly remembered either. Indeed, they may not really be remembered in detail at all; their legacy today lying not in memory or even mythology but in the culture and behaviour that evolved to ward…

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For the 3rd successive month YouGov Brexit tracker has “wrong to leave” in lead

For the 3rd successive month YouGov Brexit tracker has “wrong to leave” in lead

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The chart shows the latest YouGov Brexit tracker in which the question is whether those polled think that in insight it was wrong or right for Britain to have voted to leave EU. This is not asking how people would vote in a new referendum or whether the Brexit process should be stopped. Keiran Pedley has suggested that the use of the word “wrong” might be influencing the response which is why this result can be different from other polls…

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The Chief Whip who failed to stop LAB’s tricky Brexit motion last night gets promoted

The Chief Whip who failed to stop LAB’s tricky Brexit motion last night gets promoted

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Williamson moves up sharply in the leadership betting The main job of the Chief Whip is, of course, to ensure that the government’s business gets through the Commons – a job made much more challenging following TMay’s failure to hold onto enough seats on June 8th to maintain the Tory majority. Last night the government suffered what could be a problematical defeat on a Labour motion on the Brexit impact effect on key sectors – information that it has been…

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From what Davis said, we need to think about a Limbo Brexit

From what Davis said, we need to think about a Limbo Brexit

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If talks go down to the wire, ratification will go beyond them Brexits are like fairies. There are good ones, bad ones and if you say it with enough feeling, they might not exist at all. What we haven’t heard much of so far – though given David Davis’ comments at the Select Committee this week, we should have done – is the Limbo Brexit. What is that, you might ask. In a somewhat numerically-challenged observation, Davis claimed that a…

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“TEN COMMANDMENTS” poll finds LD voters most relaxed about murder with Leavers least concerned about lying

“TEN COMMANDMENTS” poll finds LD voters most relaxed about murder with Leavers least concerned about lying

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It’s YouGov’s cross-breaks which caught my attention That’s all fine but dataset from YouGov, helpfully, includes party and Brexit cross-breaks so we can see if there are any particular distinctions for different parts of the electorate. Although the sub-sample size for the LDs is small the fact that they are strikingly out of line on murder and and stealing to be worth highlighting. The same goes for Leave voters who seemed more relaxed about adultery and telling lies. Have fun…

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Its 5/4 at Ladbrokes that there’ll be no deal on Brexit

Its 5/4 at Ladbrokes that there’ll be no deal on Brexit

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Ladbrokes has some new markets up on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations which look interesting but I’m not sure if any of them offer any value. The options are above with 5/4 being offered on no deal being agreed before the Article 50 deadline 18 months on from now. Note the way the bookie is defining what a deal actually is. The 4/1 on Britain still being a member of the EU at the end of 2019 and whether…

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Coming back to EU – can A50 be revoked?

Coming back to EU – can A50 be revoked?

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Picture: The justices of the CJEU Alastair Meeks, who correctly forecast the outcome of the Article 50 Supreme Court case, gives his view if Article 50 is revocable. Britain is not going to be rescinding its Article 50 notice.  The Government doesn’t want to and nothing in the current progress of negotiations is bringing Britain back closer to the rest of the EU.  All of which makes a lot of the speculation about whether Britain could revoke that notice rather…

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