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Category: Article 50

Why I’m betting that that there is a greater than 35% chance that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned

Why I’m betting that that there is a greater than 35% chance that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned

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I think people are massively underestimating the impact of no deal with voters on a) the Tory brand b) the credibility of Brexit. Don’t underestimate the potential for many voters to shrug and say ‘it can’t be done so let’s not’. Not everyone of course but enough to shift votes. — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) October 14, 2018 If no deal becomes more likely the less chance of the date being met Another week starts with growing uncertainty over whether a…

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The harsh truth for LAB is that the next General Election is in May 2022 and only the Tories have the power to hold it earlier

The harsh truth for LAB is that the next General Election is in May 2022 and only the Tories have the power to hold it earlier

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Even if there is a total CON Brexit collapse there is still the Fixed Term Parliament Act Ever since June 9th last year politics has been going through rather a strange phase. The biggest losing party, LAB, acted as though it was the winner and the main winning party, CON, acted as though it had lost. Mr Corbyn was celebrated almost wherever he went and Mrs May has had to cope with endless speculation about her future. Both are still…

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The end of an era. Sir Paul Dacre is said to have edited his last Daily Mail

The end of an era. Sir Paul Dacre is said to have edited his last Daily Mail

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We can expect fewer powerful pro-Brexit front pages like these? The biggest political development over the weekend, I’d suggest, was the report in the Observer about the replacement of Paul Dacre as Daily Mail editor with the Geordie Gregg, of the Mail on Sunday, who has taken a totally different view of the referendum outcome. Gregg will start in September a couple of months earlier than planned and it is hard to see, given his views, him carrying on with…

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The road to No Deal: Brexit’s Rubik’s Cube may simply be too difficult

The road to No Deal: Brexit’s Rubik’s Cube may simply be too difficult

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There are too many conflicting interests to simultaneously satisfy Rubik’s cubes were very much a craze when I was at primary school in the early 1980s. I had one, my friends had one and millions of people across the world had them. No-one I know ever solved one though. Sure, you could solve one side easily enough but to solve all six? Certainly it was possible – you saw people on television doing it – but we simply didn’t understand…

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The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

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For the last year or so, one of my favourite betting markets has been the market on Betfair on whether Britain will leave the EU by 11pm on 29 March 2019.  I wrote about it in February and it has been a market that I have returned to regularly over the intervening months.  The price on Yes, Britain will officially leave by that date has shortened considerably since February and as I write last traded at 1.83.  I still think…

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Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

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Betdata.io The big unknown now is the Leave campaign funding investigation As can be seen from the chart the Brexit “will it happen on time” market has seen a fair bit of turbulence since the start of the year with YES now a 67% chance. The recent bumps have been cause by the progress of the exit bill through both houses of parliament. At the moment the one thing that we know about that could cause movement is the Electoral…

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A handbag is needed to break Brexit’s dialogue of the deaf

A handbag is needed to break Brexit’s dialogue of the deaf

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Too many sides are frustrated by incomprehension “Brexit means Brexit”, Theresa May once said – and if only it did. Leaving the European Union was never meant to be an easy thing and Britain is making a fine show of just how difficult it can be. The structural and procedural problems are, however, not even half the problem; the greater part of it is an inability of the government to meaningfully talk to the EU, to parliament or even to…

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Brexit exit date punters get nervous following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding

Brexit exit date punters get nervous following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding

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Mar 29 ’19 still favourite but not as strong as it was Yesterday’s ruling about Vote EU’s referendum expenses has inevitably led to those betting that the March 29th date will be achieved reviewing their positions. In recent weeks the market had been moving strongly towards it happening on time and it is still odds on. But as the Betdata chart, based on actual Betfair trades shows there has been movement. It simply adds to the uncertainty and allows some…

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