Even if there is a total CON Brexit collapse there is still the Fixed Term Parliament Act
Ever since June 9th last year politics has been going through rather a strange phase. The biggest losing party, LAB, acted as though it was the winner and the main winning party, CON, acted as though it had lost.
Mr Corbyn was celebrated almost wherever he went and Mrs May has had to cope with endless speculation about her future. Both are still there.
Corbyn’s speech yesterday was designed very much to give the appearance of an alternative government in waiting but however things go it is hard to see him achieving his reported objective of getting to Number 10 by Christmas this year.
There is a assumption, seen in the betting, that a general election might happen quite soon the only problem is that Labour has little power to influence this.
Under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act there are only two ways that a general election can happen before May 2022: a vote in the Commons backed by two thirds of all MPs or the government losing a no confidence vote that isn’t rescinded within 14 days.
The former requires the backing of the Tories while Labour simply has not got the MP numbers to achieve the latter even assuming that all the other GB parties lined up behind.
It is just about possible that a first no confidence vote is passed by the Commons but the prospect of PM Corbyn would surely bring back almost all CON MPs to rescinding it within the 14 day period.
Mrs. May’s decision to take the advice of David Davis and call the 2017 general election three years is going to remain very strongly within the collective memory of the party for years. It is hard to envisage her or her successor being ready to take such a gamble again.