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Trump ups the ante in Pennsylvania 18 staking a lot on his man winning tomorrow’s special election

Trump ups the ante in Pennsylvania 18 staking a lot on his man winning tomorrow’s special election

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A Republican hold would be big boost to the President In the early hours of Wednesday morning, UK time, I expect to be glued to CNN coverage of the results in the Pennsylvania 18th District special election. This is proving to be a massive battle and the outcome looks set to frame the narrative of how the November midterms are seen. The President is very aware of this and at the weekend made another highly publicised big visit to the…

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Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

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At a dinner in Washington on Wednesday high profile Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, made what is being seen as the start of her bid to win the 2020 White House race. She announced that she is donating $5,000 to all 50 state Democratic parties in the US. She is also giving $15,000 to the national party. According to Politico:- “Warren also began laying out a national political argument, calling for the party to pick fights on consumer rights, guns, immigration…

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Democrats take small lead in Special Pennsylvania Congressional election in district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

Democrats take small lead in Special Pennsylvania Congressional election in district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

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A bellwether for the November midterms What’s getting a lot of coverage in the US media at the moment is a big battle going on in the outskirts of Pittsburgh in a Special Congressional election caused by the resignation of the Republican incumbent over a sex scandal. It is said that millions of dollars has been spent and the Democrats are hoping they can take the district in an area that was natural Trump territory at WH2016. His margin was…

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On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

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Trump amazing powers to distract are stopping bad news taking hold With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term. We’ve not looked at this for some time but as the chart above shows the price, on Betfair, have moved quite sharply in his favour…

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Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected

Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected

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Trump’s first year in the White House in two betting charts And the November 2018 midterms Thanks yet again to Betdata.Io for their excellent historical and current political betting charts based on actual trades on the Betfair exchange. In money terms all the top politics markets at the moment are US related and my guess is that the following two on the midterms in November, will be the biggest ones of 2018. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Donald Trump’s horizontal jogging with a porn star might see Melania Trump jog on from their marriage

Donald Trump’s horizontal jogging with a porn star might see Melania Trump jog on from their marriage

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Following the recent revelations about Donald Trump paying hush money to the porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about their reputed affair, the marriage of Donald and Melania Trump has come under scrutiny. If you have no ethical or moral qualms about betting on the divorce of a couple then you might be interested in the above betting markets from Paddy Power. The bet on Trump remarrying by the 8th of November this year seems very unappealing, I’m not…

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Never forget that the vast majority of those who voted for Trump are happy with their President

Never forget that the vast majority of those who voted for Trump are happy with their President

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A recent YouGov/The Economist survey found almost 90% of Trump voters think the President is doing a good overall job #BBCPanorama pic.twitter.com/W0USzmEeWN — BBC Panorama (@BBCPanorama) January 15, 2018 And the betting continues to point to his survival UK punters on Betfair continue to bet on Trump’s survival pic.twitter.com/cnHgavmDqY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

How Britain should play the Trump card without folding or upping the ante

How Britain should play the Trump card without folding or upping the ante

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A guest slot from Julian Glassford The vertiginous rise of the new champion of the alt-right in 2016 prompted a palpable blend of bafflement and consternation among the political elite right around the globe. Few dared even imagine that Donald Trump would triumph over his wily, experienced, and altogether far more internationally acceptable rival in the US presidential election. Indeed, most appeared caught almost completely off-guard and, a year on, none have yet managed to figure out quite how to…

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