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The PB MidTerms Prize Competition – did you get closest to the O’Rourke vote share?

The PB MidTerms Prize Competition – did you get closest to the O’Rourke vote share?

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Meanwhile the money goes on O’Rourke for WH2020 Exactly a month ago we launched the PB Prize Midterms competition with the question being: What will be the vote share (to 2 decimal points) of the Texas Democratic candidate, Beto O’Rourke, in the election set for four weeks on Tuesday? It was noted then that “Because it can take some time for final vote share in US elections to be determined this competition will be settled on the vote shares the…

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The restoration of Florida felons’ voting rights could tip the balance against GOP at WH2020

The restoration of Florida felons’ voting rights could tip the balance against GOP at WH2020

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We all know how Florida can have a huge impact on presidential elections and that it is always a tight race there. Overnight the incumbent Democratic Senator was ousted and replaced by a Republican winning by a very small margin. One of the other things that the state voted on yesterday was Amendment 4 which restores voting rights to 1.4 million people in Florida with past convictions.  The outcome, which required a 60%+ vote, restores the voting rights specifically to felons not…

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The story of the night on the betting markets

The story of the night on the betting markets

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At one point the Republicans were favourites to take the House I love these charts from Betdata.io showing the dynamic movement on the Betfair exchange elections markets. The odds on the Betfair Exchange, of course, are not determined by the bookmaker but rather by how individual punters are seeing it with some making wagers and others laying specific bets. What is intriguing knowing what we know now is that at one stage during the evening, as the chart shows, the…

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As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

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So far, we’re seeing the highest non-white voter turnout ever for a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/Zw67LwhYxm — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 7, 2018 Along with non-white voters, we’re also seeing the highest turnout of young voters (age 18-29) ever in a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/OhBWzSONE2 — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 7, 2018 Nbc has called first house seat swapping hands – Virginia 10- believe Barbara comstock now out if they're right. #Midterms2018 — emily m (@maitlis) November 7, 2018 One of the…

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The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

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Viewcode once again looks at the detailed data The midterms are for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, 36 out of 50 state Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors and is the successor to a similar article . The following figures were taken between 1am and 4am GMT November 6th 2018 NATIONWIDE GENERIC BALLOT POLLS A “generic ballot”…

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Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

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The Mid Term Elections of 2018 are shaping up to be one of the most important elections in recent times, perhaps up there with the 1994 Republican “Contract with America” or the 2010 “schallacking” that the Republicans gave the Democrats. Whatever happens, all the twists and turns will be poured over for years to come, so instead of looking at the issues, I will be focusing on which congressional districts are likely to flip (GAIN) and what impact that will…

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One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and one has the Republicans in the lead

One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and one has the Republicans in the lead

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Within a few hours Americans start voting in probably the most crucial midterm elections that we’ve seen in modern times. Quite simply these take place after 2 years of Mr Trump’s occupancy of the White House which has had a extraordinary impact on the way government works and how Americans see themselves. The Democrats are desperate to win at least the House tomorrow as well as gain a clutch of state governorships. They also hope to do well in the…

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