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Category: America

How special is special? The US-UK relationship

How special is special? The US-UK relationship

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Be honest. How many G7 summits do you remember? How many are little more than talking shops with the same old photos of largely the same old characters? Last year’s summit, for instance, was mostly memorable for that photo of a defensive obstinate Trump surrounded by an exasperated Merkel and others. And this year? We have the sight of Trump showing off his latest pet, our very own Prime Minister, laughing a little too keenly  at the President’s bon mots (or…

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With the Iowa betting markets now being opened a helpful primer on how its caucuses actually work

With the Iowa betting markets now being opened a helpful primer on how its caucuses actually work

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Ladbrokes and Betfair have now got markets up on the first big hurdle in WH2020 – the Iowa Caucuses which are scheduled for February 3rd next year. Because of their historical importance and that so many Democrats are contenders this looks set to be a hugely significant day and a very big betting event. The first thing to remember about them is that only a smallish proportion of Democrats and Republicans actually participate. This time for both parties it might…

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Former White House Coms Director predicts Trump will quit WH2020 race by March

Former White House Coms Director predicts Trump will quit WH2020 race by March

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Could it be that the President won’t be the nominee? Over the weekend I’ve placed of bets at effectively about 10/1 that Trump will not be the Republican nominee at WH2020. I’ve done this by laying Trump on the Betfair 2020 nominee market. This has been prompted by two developments. First there have been the public comments of former White House Coms Director, Anthony Scaramucci, who has been infuriating Trump over the last few days with a series of TV…

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Elizabeth Warren soars ahead in the Democratic nomination betting after a poll puts her 11% ahead in Iowa

Elizabeth Warren soars ahead in the Democratic nomination betting after a poll puts her 11% ahead in Iowa

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Betdata.io chart of past three months on Betfair Exchange In an earlier post this week Robert emphasised the importance of the Iowa caucuses in the selection of the Democratic nominee. This is all because the state is the first to decide and voters there tend to pay much greater attention to the contenders at this stage than those states where the primaries are much later in the calendar. This week has been the Iowa State Fair and all the contenders…

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Trump and the inverted yield curve

Trump and the inverted yield curve

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    President Trump would seem to have an advantage over whoever the Democrats select as his 2020 challenger: since the Second World War, nine elected presidents have sought a second term, and seven of them succeeded. The two exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, the US economy was performing badly in the lead-up to the election. US voters seem to be indulgent towards their incumbent presidents, but less so…

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All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide

All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide

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If you want to know who the Democratic nominee to be President will be, watch Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because it is extremely rare for the eventual candidate to fail to win one of those two two states. How rare? Well, let’s look at the history for a second: 2016 – Clinton won Iowa 2012 – Obama won both 2008 – Obama won Iowa 2004 – Kerry won both 2000 – Gore won both 1996 – Clinton won both…

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Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

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Graphic – Recent YouGov polling on impeaching Trump Impeachment is a legal procedure, with an indictment delivered by the House and a trial conducted by the Senate. But, assuming that there is a plausible yet arguable case for it, the procedure naturally resolves itself into a political process like any other. To recap, impeachment is defined as the House passing one or more articles of impeachment, by a simple majority vote. The House has 435 voting members, of which 235 are…

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Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy the WH2020 nomination favourite slot

Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy the WH2020 nomination favourite slot

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Since the Democratic WH2020 nomination betting opened there have now been four different contenders who have occupied the betting favourite slot on the Betfair exchange. First it was Senator Bernie Sanders, the 77 year old from Vermont, then ex-VP Jo Biden, 76,  who has had two stints there.  After her impressive performance in the first debate Senator Kamala Harris took over only to see her betting position decline sharply after a lacklustre second debate appearance last week The latest favourite…

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