Every so often we see some polling that much like the polling of Tory Party members last summer that saw a majority of Tory members will to countenance the destruction of the United Kingdom as well as significant damage to the economy to ensure their Brexit is delivered makes you go wow. This polling from America which sees 62% of New Hampshire Democratic Party primary voters would prefer a meteor strike to wipe out all human life over Trump winning…
Given the delays in getting a firm result from Iowa I wonder whether our first clear cut outcome could happen on Tuesday night in New Hampshire. For even when the Iowa party gets all the outstanding data in on Monday then it is far from clear that this will be the end of the matter. All this is because with caucuses it is the party machines that handles the election and the counting unlike where you have full primaries like…
The big question mark is over Bloomberg Although the Iowa result has not yet been finalised and it might be a few days before we know, there’s little doubt that what happened on Monday will have a major impact on the race from here. We are already seeing this in polls for the New Hampshire Primary which takes place next Tuesday. It is a big ask to expect Pete to achieve victory in New Hampshire but some polls have him…
I’ve cashed out on Betfair so I’m sure of a profit Mike Smithson
It’s third time unlucky for the ex-VP in Iowa Biden’s career in politics has been defined by his runs for the presidency which have seen him flop at the first fence in Iowa. In 1988 his bid came to an end in the state following him being ridiculed for plagiarising a Neil Kinnock election PPB in order to make a speech about himself. Two decades later in 2008 he pulled out of the race after failing to get a delegate…
From a 38% chance to 19% in just two weeks Hopefully we should get the Iowa results at some stage during the day. One thing that punters seem to agree on is that ex-VP and former favourite for the nomination, Jo Biden, had a poor night. Even though some pre-caucus Iowa polls had him as favourite he’s not being given an earthly at the moment. This inevitably has led to him being marked down in the overall nomination betting. Judging…
The first voting in WH2020 starts tonight The latest weather for Des Moines has it down going down to minus 6 tonight which could be a big disincentive to those Democratic supporters who were considering taking part in the caucuses. In past elections something like 16% of Iowans have participated which makes this a massive test for the pollsters. Will those who said they’d participate in these events which can lat two hours actually do so. The biggest mover in…
Four or five in the frame and a chaotic process makes it far too hard to call The Iowa caucus is one of those things that no-one in their right mind would invent if it didn’t already exist. As a democratic process, it flouts goodness knows how many rules of good practice, from high barriers to participation to non-secret voting to a lack of consistent process. However, it’s possible to get too precious about process. The caucus does exist and…