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To give an idea of the sheer scale of tonight’s primary elections a total of 1,344 will be decided compared with the 1,991 pledged delegates that will be required to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. This is probably the biggest single day of primaries ever and turnout is expected to be high across the 14 states involved. The polls close in Vermont, Virginia and in Alabama at midnight UK time and we should start getting local results…

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At 5/2 she’s value A big problem with just about all the Super Tuesday polls is that they were carried out before Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar announced that they were pulling out so it is hard to assess where their support will go. As the polling of Massachusetts above shows Elizabeth Warren had been running Bernie Sanders fairly close in what is her home state and where she has one of the two senate seats. A big question is…

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We all know that the joint front runners now in the race for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are both older than anybody who has ever run for the White House before and there must be a high actuarial chance, at least, if it is one of these who is the nominee won’t make it until the election on the first Tuesday in November. The corona virus is also making us aware of the vulnerability of the…

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Biden and Bernie running neck and neck on the eve of “Super Tuesday”

Even though barely 6% of precincts have reported as I write, the networks have all declared Joe Biden the winner in the South Carolina Primary. At the moment he’s heading for more than 50% of the entire vote and it is hard to see anything other than him sweeping the state. There will be few states in the current nomination race where the outcome will be so clear cut in favour of one candidate and this exceeds anything that the…

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His Obama link seems to be working well. Just about ever since Betfair opened its South Carolina betting market former vice-president, 77 year old Joe Biden, has been the favourite. There was a moment a weak or so ago when when everything seems to be going on Bernie’s way and he had a day as favourite. Since then things have changed and now Biden is a 93%+chance. The thing to remember about the state is that the majority of Democratic…

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Biden looks set to be heading for victory in the state that was his firewall With the South Carolina primary taking place on Saturday there have been three new polls today all of them showing ex-VP Joe Biden with a clear lead. One poll has him 20% ahead of Bernie Sanders, another one 16% while a final one has the gap just at 4% Whatever there is no good poll for Sanders and and the signs are that the state…

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