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Author: TSE

Continuation thread and note on ICM

Continuation thread and note on ICM

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There is an interesting snippet emerging from Martin Boon of ICM. “ICM\Sunday Telegraph to launch brand new method of predicting elections using public opinion” Whilst Patrick Hennessey of the Sunday Telegraph tweeted “New direction in opinion polling pioneered by SunTel/ICM tomorrow…watch this space later on” This will be out this evening. I’m very intrigued by this. Hopefully there will be a VI poll as well. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.    

Should Cameron reshuffle this Summer?

Should Cameron reshuffle this Summer?

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David Herdson on a cabinet reshuffle. If so, who goes, stays, moves and arrives? One feature of the coalition government has been how stable ministerial appointments have been.  The great majority of those appointed in 2010 are not only still in office but still in the same office.  When ministers have left the government, the ensuing reshuffles have been very vertical affairs with little movement within the same rank. One major reason for this is that it’s far harder to…

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Has Hunt done enough to survive?

Has Hunt done enough to survive?

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After his performance at the Leveson inquiry, did he do enough to save his position? Labour are planning to hold a commons vote on whether Hunt should be referred for a breach of the Ministerial code, a lot will depends on how the Lib Dems vote on this. The Liberal Democrats said it was “a matter for the prime minister alone to decide how to handle issues of discipline concerning Conservative ministers”. William Hill have a market up on Jeremy Hunt to…

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Will Jeremy Hunt soon be an ex-cabinet Minister

Will Jeremy Hunt soon be an ex-cabinet Minister

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Catching up with the first part of Jeremy Hunt’s testimony at the Leveson Inquiry, the one thing that sticks out for me at least is this, Vince Cable was removed from the decision making process for showing prejudice, at the very least, Jeremy Hunt, should have showed a perception of complete neutrality. In politics, occasionally the perception matters more than the facts, and on perceptions alone it doesn’t look good for Hunt. Given that we have the Jubilee long weekend…

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Is it worth taking out Mitt insurance?

Is it worth taking out Mitt insurance?

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David Herdson on the Republican nomination. What are the chances that Romney won’t be nominee? Following his comprehensive win in Texas this week, the media have generally called Mitt Romney as officially over the winning line, with more than half the delegates for the Republican convention later this year. Yes and no. Some states which held caucuses months ago have still to allocate their delegates as the initial vote was just the first stage in the process.  If delegates are…

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Who will be Mitt’s running mate?

Who will be Mitt’s running mate?

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Following the Texas primary last night, Mitt Romney secured enough delegates to be his party’s Presidential nominee, now he will be considering who to select as his running mate. Jeb Bush has said he would consider an offer to become Mitt Romney’s vice presidential running mate “very carefully.” The former Florida governor told Italian news outlet Linkiesta in an interview on Tuesday. “If Romney were to offer me the job of vice president, I would consider the proposal very carefully,” Bush…

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