Labour increases its lead, from three points to six points. The fieldwork dates were between Friday the 30th August and Sunday the 1st September 2013, ComRes interviewed 1,000 British adults by telephone, so all post the Government defeat on Syria. Other salient points from the poll This is another poll showing Labour’s share of the vote in the 36%-40% range. For the first time since December 2012 the Lib Dems are ahead of UKIP in a ComRes phone poll. As…
In the last 24 hours or so, a couple of polls have been released on the Scottish Independence Referendum, one with a large lead for the no side, and one with a lead for the yes side, so how to make sense of this, First up was a YouGov poll for Devo Plus. Indy Ref polling YouGov/Devo Plus Yes to Independence 29 (nc) No to Independence 59 (+4) Changes since last YouGov poll in October 2012 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2013 In…
The fieldwork was post the Syria debate vote, Friday to Sunday inclusive. So two out of the three polls conducted in the aftermath of the defeat for the Government has shown no discernible change in VI, hopefully we shall see some more polling in the next few days, which will help us determine whether the YouGov was the harbinger of a period of increased Labour leads, or just an outlier. TSE
Following on from the House of Commons vote on military action in Syria, Labour sources claimed that William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, was “very, very angry†and threatened to quit over David Cameron’s decision to go straight to a parliamentary vote. Based on Yes, Minister’s first rule of politics: never believe anything until it’s been officially denied, the value may have gone out of backing Hague as next out of the cabinet, where he is currently favourite at 5/1, it…
The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is out. YouGov Sunday Times Poll, Labour gets it first double digit lead since 12/7 Con 31 Lab 41 Lib Dem 9 UKIP 13 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013 YouGov changes compared with last poll take pre-Syrian vote Con -2 Lab +4 Lib Dems -1 UKIP +1 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013 As ever, this is one poll, we need to see more polling to see if this is an outlier or the…
There’s a new poll out by Survation for the Mail on Sunday. The fieldwork was entirely after the government defeat. Survation interviewed 1002 respondents online on Friday afternoon and evening seeking their reactions to the Government’s House of Commons defeat over Syria. As we can see there’s been very little movement in VI. Survation for The Mail on Sunday – VI (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)…
Government defeats in House of Commons vote are usually a blow to the sitting Prime Minister, leaving a scar of weakness, and requiring a scramble to reformulate policy to account for the set-back and fill the gap left by the defeated motion. A coalition government adds another level of questions about what this means in terms of unity. In this case however, I wonder if David Cameron will benefit from losing this vote far more than if he’d managed…
Here's a montage of the most recent front pages I've seen. #Syria http://t.co/EkYjORp06g pic.twitter.com/sRvJIGQyNm — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) August 30, 2013 Looking at those front pages, it doesn’t make for pleasant reading for David Cameron today. As Janan Ganesh writes Defeat in Thursday night’s parliamentary vote on the principle of military action in Syria is not an existential wound for David Cameron, whatever his more excitable enemies say. But, after several months of good form, the prime minister looks weaker than at…