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As long as Ipsos-Mori keeps on getting findings like this, does it vindicate ICM’s methodology?

As long as Ipsos-Mori keeps on getting findings like this, does it vindicate ICM’s methodology?

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Ipsos Mori's party dislike ratings pic.twitter.com/yqUk9vZFES — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2013 The Ipsos-Mori polling on which party is the most disliked, the Tories are the most disliked and Labour the least disliked. Now if we examine why ICM have earned the title of as the gold standard of polling, one of the main reasons is their spiral of silence of adjustment. To understand the spiral of silence adjustment here’s a brief outline, The “spiral of silence” came from an…

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Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

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And can Ed stop them? MIRROR: Ed's £9m in the red #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/YwkjyXqqxK — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 4, 2013 In the past week, whilst it has felt that there’s nothing happening in British politics other than Syria, yesterday saw a story that may have a crucial impact on the 2015 general election. The news was The 65-strong GMB executive announced on Wednesday that it would cut the number of its members affiliated to Labour from 420,000 to 50,000…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, it won’t turn your world, Upside Down, by delurking, I hope this intro will start a Chain Reaction of lurkers delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Minority election: could black voters swing it in UK in…

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TNS BMRB polling on Scottish Independence

TNS BMRB polling on Scottish Independence

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Support for Independence hits a new low with TNS-BMRB but support for the Union also falls as the big winner is the Don’t Knows. The changes are from their last poll in April of this year.   The question asked by TNS was “There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country” Which is near identical to the…

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Betting on Will There Be Another Government Sponsored Commons Vote On Military Intervention In Syria By Year End?

Betting on Will There Be Another Government Sponsored Commons Vote On Military Intervention In Syria By Year End?

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Paddy Power have launched a market on Will There Be Another Government Sponsored Commons Vote On Military Intervention In Syria By Year End? New PB on whether the Govt will have a second vote on Syria http://t.co/iR49F1eN8w pic.twitter.com/pYu6K6ekWO — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2013   David Cameron said today ‘Parliament spoke very clearly and it’s important to respect the view of parliament so I’m not planning to return to parliament to ask again about British military action.’ Nick Clegg has said “could not…

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Betting on the Lib Dems getting 14% or higher with YouGov this year

Betting on the Lib Dems getting 14% or higher with YouGov this year

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Paddy Power have a market up on whether The Lib Dems will poll 14% or higher with YouGov this year. Paddy Power betting on whether the LDs will poll 14% or higher with YouGov in 2013 pic.twitter.com/QgsnvV6s9j — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2013 The last time the Lib Dems polled higher than 14% with YouGov was when they polled 15% back in September 2010. The highest they have polled this year is 13% (twice) which was back in March. This…

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This Morning’s YouGov

This Morning’s YouGov

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Sun/YouGov Poll Con 33% (+2) Lab 40% (-1) LD 9% (nc) UKIP 12%(-1) Changes since last pre Syria poll Con nc, Lab +3, LD -1, UKIP nc — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2013 Labour will be happy with another poll showing them in the 40s. The Conservatives are back to their share of the vote being where it was prior to the Syria vote and see the Labour lead back to the single figure scores it has been for the…

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