Browsed by
Author: TSE

Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

Comments 0 Comment

The Ipsos-Mori issues index is out for May. As Mike has noted in the past, “The Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique because the questioning is unprompted & is seen as best test of the salience of issues.” Largely it is no change for all voters.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (all voters) pic.twitter.com/0QMLVsk1ls — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2014 The issues through Kipper eyes.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (UKIP voters) pic.twitter.com/Qcvdx8LwBN — The Screaming Eagles…

Read More Read More

One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

Comments 0 Comment

With one year to go, I thought it would be useful to track how Ed and Dave compare to their predecessors one year before a General Election. I’ve been using the ratings from Ipsos-Mori that go back nearly forty years and are considered to be the Gold Standards of leader ratings.     Looking at the Leader of the Opposition net ratings, sometimes the figures speak for themselves. Only Leaders of the Opposition  with net positive ratings one year have…

Read More Read More

PB Euro election competition winner

PB Euro election competition winner

Comments 0 Comment

Congratulations to Wulfrun_Phil to winning the competition, thanks to everyone who took part, and a big thank you to Mark Hopkins to setting up the website for the entries. Just a note, on the above picture, I’ve hidden the individual differences for each party column (so not to make the above picture unreadable) the total diff column is the sum of these individual columns. A link to the spreadsheet with everyone’s entries and rankings is available here. TSE

The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

Comments 0 Comment

The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP. The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters? Do…

Read More Read More

It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

Comments 0 Comment

  As part of their polling for The Times, YouGov asked “Imagine that at the next election the party leaders remained David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband for Labour and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats. How would you vote?” Normally they ask “If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know” Now the first thing that caught my eye…

Read More Read More

A masterclass in how not to conduct a political assasination

A masterclass in how not to conduct a political assasination

Comments 0 Comment

New PB thread on Lord Oakeshott’s polls. http://t.co/5G50n29GOC pic.twitter.com/dXXotaSaKi — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 28, 2014   Lord Oakeshott resigned today from the Lib Dems following the publication of those polls. He said “I am sure the party is heading for disaster if it keeps Nick Clegg; and I must not get in the way of the many brave Liberal Democrats fighting for change” It also emerged there were other polls, that unsurprisingly showed Danny Alexander losing his seat, but…

Read More Read More

Polling Round Up

Polling Round Up

Comments 0 Comment

Lord Ashcroft’s latest weekly phone poll is out. @LordAshcroft latest Westminster VI poll, changes since last week Con 29 (nc), Lab 31 (-4), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 17 (+3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2014   Populus have published their bi-weekly online poll New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (=); LD 9 (=); UKIP 14 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://t.co/GvE36tpnBc — Populus (@PopulusPolls) May 27, 2014 Meanwhile Ipsos-Mori have some polling out, here are the…

Read More Read More

Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

Comments 0 Comment

Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance? Yes, it looks like Labour will be soundly defeated next year. The following graph tells the tale (general elections bordered in white). We see that, going back to 1979, no party with such a minuscule lead…

Read More Read More