As we wait for the final YouGov indyref poll Marf gives her take
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Ipsos-Mori becomes the latest pollster to show the indyref being too close to call
New @IpsosMORI indyref phone poll Yes 49% (+7) No 51% (-7) http://t.co/ocWIgiYXQr FIeldwork monday and tuesday — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 The changes are since the last Ipsos-Mori poll which was conducted at the start of August, it was before any of the debates, so it is coming into line with the other pollsters, given their track record at the 2011 Holyrood election, it will cause great alarm at Better Together, this is a phone poll, and…
Enter the PB Indyref prediction competition as Panelbase becomes the fourth pollster to have it No 52, Yes 48
Welcome to PB’s Indyref prediction competition, you need to enter the % Yes will achieve, and the % turnout. Shadsy of Ladbrokes has generously donated £50 of free bets to the winner who gets the yes percentage spot on, or nearest to it. Please click here to submit your entry. Entries should be to two decimal places. Please note that you will need to have a Ladbrokes account or be ready to open one if you win. This means that…
Corporeal suggests that political punters should be rooting against the Pollsters
Confusion might be best for those wanting a bet Here at PB we generally like pollsters (especially if they drop by to read and boost traffic numbers). I’m sure many of them are lovely people (a couple have even retweeted me occasionally) but it’s mostly the polls they produce that we like (sometimes with the slight undercurrent of getting a fix supplied). As a site where we mix polling and betting good data on likely outcomes is valuable as well…
Will Parliament next Saturday end Cameron’s Premiership?
The knee-jerk response to a YES vote? A couple of days ago the Sunday Times reports (££) Informal soundings have been taken about recalling parliament on Saturday, the first Saturday sitting since the Falklands War, if there is a “yes†victory. I know there’s been a lot of debate on pb and elsewhere, about David Cameron resigning in the event of Scotland voting to secede from the United Kingdom, whilst I’ve been in the camp, that he wouldn’t resign, I’m ever…
Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2
The Guardian ICM phone poll is out. It confirms what the suspicion that last month’s ICM with a Labour lead of 7% was an outlier. The Greens are up to 7%, only 3% from being third in a Westminster VI poll! whilst the Lib Dems  are equalling their worst-ever performance over the last two decades. It maybe the Greens are receiving a boost, having just held their conference. For those anticipating swingback, well, there may not be much scope for that…
Survation Indyref poll is out
Survation #indyref poll is No 54 Yes 46 – Is reportedly a phone poll, so not good to compare to their last poll which was an online poll — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 13, 2014 On what appears to be first of a few indyref polls out today, the first one is survation, which should relax those at Better Together, as it gives them a larger lead than the ICM phone poll yesterday showed. As the tweet above notes,…
Survation Indyref poll gives Better Together some good news
New @Survation #indyref poll has Yes 47 (nc) No 53 (nc) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 10, 2014 47.6% plan to vote No a week tomorrow with 42.4% voting Yes. 10% of people remain undecided, 53% No to 47% Yes. http://t.co/z59C5GG4I3 — Survation (@Survation) September 10, 2014 A 10% gap with women voters helped Better Together to their latest poll lead http://t.co/NKBuEN1RvY — The Daily Record (@Daily_Record) September 10, 2014 The Survation poll for the Daily Record is out now….