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Author: TSE

Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the Indyref

Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the Indyref

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listen to ‘Jeremy speaks to gambler who placed £900,000 bet on 'No' vote ’ on Audioboo   If you click the play button above, you’ll be able to listen to the interview.   Here’s a link to an article accompanying the interview. I always find it fascinating listening to the reasons and strategies why other people bet the way they do, because if they’re successful, it is will be wise to replicate their approach in the future, if they’re not…

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The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

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From the Ipsos-Mori that featured this morning, Ipsos-Mori asked the following “I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…” The two findings that stood out were UKIP were comfortably viewed as the most extreme, and the least fit to govern in answer to that question.   My own thinking is these are the kind of findings that will…

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Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

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How are Labour’s maintaining its poll leads, despite Ed’s poor ratings? One of the things that has been consistent in the last few years, the voters don’t rate Ed Miliband and he often trails David Cameron on most polling questions. In the past, I’ve shown that Ed Miliband’s ratings as Leader of the Opposition are very poor compared to his predecessors, only Michael Foot had worse ratings one year before a General Election, yet Labour still continue to generally lead…

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The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….

The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….

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….David Evershed, who got the Yes percentage spot on. David, can you contact Mike here so you can receive your £50 worth of free bets from Shadsy. You can check out your own performance by clicking here. Many thanks once again to Shadsy of Ladbrokes politics for donating the prize, and Mark Hopkins for developing the software for us to submit our entries. TSE

The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

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Western Isles goes NO 53.4%. (yes 46.4%) Another disappointment for YES as some polls suggested it wld be yes camp's biggest potential win — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) September 19, 2014 Ouch. YES fails to win the Western Isles — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 TSE

The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

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Turnup figures coming in (not turnout – as includes spoilt ballots) Orkney 83.7%, Clackmannanshire 88.6% — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Inverclyde total ballots cast 87.4 #indyref — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Renfrewshire total ballots cast 87.3% — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Though Dundee’s figure was a surprise Dundee turnout is 78.8%. Its been dubbed "Yes City" – fact turnout is lower than in some other areas could be disappointing for Yes…

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The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

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Like the Ipsos-Mori, there’s a small swing to No, as the Betfair price on Yes hits 14.5 YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% – http://t.co/huG6uJFiJG — YouGov (@YouGov) September 18, 2014 The YouGov poll isn’t an exit poll, but I post it here for the sake of completeness. Nearly 2,000 Scots were contacted by YouGov after they had been to the polling stations. So the polling and the bookies makes for great reading for Unionists, but as ever, we need…

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YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.

YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.

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YouGov sees no change whilst Survation’s phone poll sees No’s lead cut by 2%, all the final polls have No ahead.If no wins, it’ll be the oldies and women that wins it for them Final YouGov #indyref poll has no ahead No 52 (nc) Yes 48 (nc) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 New @Survation #indyref phone poll sees No 53 (-1) Yes 47 (+1) http://t.co/QYlhTN4gx6 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 YouGov/Times: The 25 to 29 age…

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