It seems likely that we are on the edge of a new stage in UKIP’s existence, with Douglas Carswell looking likely to become the party’s second MP (Bob Spink’s legacy as the answer to that political trivia question is safe) and the first to be elected as a UKIP candidate. The polling is so overwhelming that Simon Hughes is humourously cheering on the Tories in the hopes of holding onto his record for the largest swing in UK political…
Clacton doesn’t look like being the most exciting of elections. Matthew Shadwick [Shadsy] of Ladbrokes was kind enough to invite me along on a visit to the scene of one of tomorrow’s by-elections. I wondered whether he might need help collecting a flood of money, or maybe he just wanted some company while he stood outside the firm’s shop on Pier Avenue with his board optimistically offering odds of 1/50 UKIP, 14/1 Conservative and 33/1 Labour. We’d arranged to meet…
The debate about UKIP is hotting up in Labour circles. UKIP are demonstrating they can get past Labour’s defences in a lot of traditional working class communities in a way the Tories never could. A few years ago the purple party were dismissed as ‘the BNP in blazers’ and a party with an appeal limited to southern leafy shires. Not now. Now UKIP are genuinely challenging in northern towns like Rotherham and Grimsby and have made enormous progress in…
Some interesting movements over at the bookies @MSmithsonPB Still 5/1 with Ladbrokes, if anyone's interested. — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 8, 2014 Clegg NOT to lead LibDems into GE2015 price slashed from 13/2 to 2/1 after flood of bets overnight http://t.co/oSACEkpCfV — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 Rumour mill continues to point to Nick Clegg announcing his departure today. Bet available at 5/6 here: http://t.co/ek1hEO3PHu — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 It is worth checking…
So what will be the big surprise(s) from Clegg’s speech. Clegg's big day, what can we expect? http://t.co/rkg0RfVb3n pic.twitter.com/neID2svtnJ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 8, 2014 I expect the issue that damaged the Lib Dems from the start, tuition fees will get an airing, as that probably helped defined the Lib Dems in government, but as he apologised in the past with no benefit, it might be a mistake to bring it up again as it might remind a certain…
There’ll be relief for the Reds that they Tory lead hasn’t lasted longer. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: big respite for nervous Ed Miliband as Labour regain the lead, for now at least. LAB 34%, CON 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 8%. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 7, 2014 As ever, conference polling can be volatile. Hopefully, we’ll see the Ipsos-Mori phone in the next few days, which will give us further insight into the lie of the political land. TSE
In the last few weeks, YouGov polled the following question about the Lib Dems and UKIP “Which of the following comes closer to your opinion about the future for the Lib Dems/UKIP” As we can see the voters think going forward that UKIP will be more relevant than the Lib Dems. I suspect the current Westminster VI polling is driving this, as the Lord Ashcroft marginal polls showed, the Lib Dems are doing better than national polling suggests, more…
Please note this piece was written before the recent polling putting the Tories ahead If the voting in the next General Election reflects current opinion polling, Ed Miliband will become Prime Minister next May. Of course, the Conservatives are hopeful that the polls will shift before then, but, as things stand today, the possibility of a Labour-led government, either in a hung parliament or with a small majority, is certainly a very real one. The betting marketscurrently make it around a…