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Sir Vince Cable predicts George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister

Sir Vince Cable predicts George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister

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In October 1974 Thatcher was 50/1 to be the next Tory leader. Less than four months later, she became Tory leader pic.twitter.com/OiALS7dNSI — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 The favourite this far out seldom wins the Tory leadership – Will Osborne be any different? In an interview with the Guardian today Sir Vince Cable predicts that George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister. Sir Vince like Mark Antony comes to bury Osborne, not praise him by saying Osborne is “extremely shrewd…

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Understanding the Cooper surge

Understanding the Cooper surge

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As with other bookies Yvette Cooper's chances on Betfair have improved in the last 36 hours, she's now 2nd favourite pic.twitter.com/3iYuOS9Qnl — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 As with other bookies Burnham's chances on Betfair have declined in the last 36 hours, he was 2nd fave now 3rd fave pic.twitter.com/OWNzzoj5Nb — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 Ladbrokes: 74% chance Corbyn will win #Labour vote. Cooper overtakes Burnham as main threat. http://t.co/taExTpXAwj pic.twitter.com/BVUyXDZker — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2015 In…

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Is Hillary in trouble and can ‘The Donald’ last?

Is Hillary in trouble and can ‘The Donald’ last?

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Whilst Clinton and Trump set the pace, a host of other candidates are waiting in the wings.  Polling expert Keiran Pedley runs the rule over the 2016 US Presidential hopefuls. Having spent the past week in the U.S. visiting my wife’s parents I have been able to spend some time looking at the 2016 US Presidential race in detail. Make no mistake, the campaign is in full swing, with Iowa and New Hampshire just a few short months away. I…

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Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

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Hmmmm http://t.co/DKqC19NDFL pic.twitter.com/9NZRzrOAZS — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2015 Last night the Guardian reported that Labour members and supporters have begun protesting to the party about their lack of ballot papers with less than a week to go before the leadership election closes. The party initially promised that 99.9% of its electorate would have received ballot papers by 28 August, but it is now refusing to disclose how many of the 554,000 have been sent out.  A initial batch of…

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Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

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All the ingredients for Corbyn to lose are there The Labour leadership contest seems to share a lot of the characteristics of the 2015 general election. We have the overwhelming enthusiastic social media support for a flawed candidate (that might not end up actually casting their vote), shy Tories*, the polls showing only outcome and betting sentiment heavily in favour of the polling outcome. We’ve only had two public polls on this leadership election and the potential sampling and weighting…

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Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early as next April

Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early as next April

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.@BBCAllegra hs learned govt considering holding EU ref as early as April 2016 to exploit weakness of Corbyn-led Labour Party #newsnight — Ian Katz (@iankatz1000) September 1, 2015 On the day Cameron accepted the electoral commission suggestion to change the wording of the EU referendum question, and UKIP turned the OUT movement into a modern day equivalent of the People’s Front for Judea versus the Judean People’s Front, this is probably the most interesting news of the day. It may…

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In a strange land

In a strange land

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Antifrank looks at The politics of immigration and asylum “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”  These are words which find absolutely no purchase in Britain in 2015.  Fully 50% this month see immigration as one of the three most important issues facing Britain in Ipsos MORI’s regular poll for the Economist and it’s a safe bet that few of them are concerned that Britain isn’t getting enough foreigners. Proving anything with statistics If one…

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Betting on when the new Labour leader will be announced

Betting on when the new Labour leader will be announced

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William Hill offer 8/1 that new Labour leader will NOT be announced on scheduled date of September 12, 2015. 1/20 he or she WILL be. — William Hill (@sharpeangle) August 22, 2015 William Hill have a market on will the new Labour leader be announced on the scheduled date of Saturday the 12th of September. For non-Labour supporters, this leadership election is the gift that keeps on giving which has somehow managed to make the Florida 2000 Presidential election mess…

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