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Keiran Pedley says Corbyn is here to stay and Labour’s moderates have some thinking to do

Keiran Pedley says Corbyn is here to stay and Labour’s moderates have some thinking to do

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After a bruising week, Jeremy Corbyn has emerged stronger than ever writes Keiran Pedley leaving Labour’s moderates with plenty to think about. Every now and then a week comes along in British politics that is genuinely important and shapes what is to come. Last week was one of them. All of the ingredients pointed to a disaster for Jeremy Corbyn. From allegations that the leadership was ‘bullying’ MPs with farcical ‘consultations’ to a divisive Syria vote and THAT Hilary Benn…

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Happy tenth anniversary David

Happy tenth anniversary David

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For 70% of Cameron's 10yrs as leader he's been ahead of his Lab opponent, in @IpsosMORI net satisfaction terms pic.twitter.com/qY5wuvQ8CS — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 6, 2015 Today is the tenth anniversary of David Cameron’s election as Conservative Leader, and what a ten years it has been. The above chart neatly encapsulates why David Cameron is seen as the Conservative Party’s strongest asset, for around 70% of his tenure, he has led his Labour opponent on this front. With Cameron not standing…

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CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

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Alastair Meeks reviews the Oldham West and Royton by election After any betting event, successful or unsuccessful, it is important to take stock of what went wrong and what went right.  This is especially important when expectations were completely upended, as happened on Thursday night in the Oldham West & Royton by-election. What happened? Contrary to all prior expectations, Labour not only won comfortably, it increased its share of the vote.  This should not have been a surprise.  As I…

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The date of the next Labour leadership election betting

The date of the next Labour leadership election betting

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Paddy Power have a market up on the date of the next Labour leadership election. I quite like this market because most of the other markets on the Labour leadership are about when Jeremy Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader, this market allows for an unsuccessful attempt to remove to Corbyn. I initially started writing this piece on Friday morning and was going to suggest that 2019 might be value, as a year before a general election might focus minds,…

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Echoes of History: Hilary Benn and Michael Foot

Echoes of History: Hilary Benn and Michael Foot

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Echoes of history. Donald Brind compares Hilary Benn’s speech on Syrian air strikes to Michael Foot’s on the Falklands. How to draw the sting from Hilary Benn’s brilliant wind-up speech in the Commons debate on Syria air strikes? That was the problem facing Labour and SNP opponents of the military action who were on the wrong end of the 179 majority. They set out to kill it with comparisons. For Labour, the shadow chancellor John McDonnell said it reminded him of…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldham, Syria, Polling, and Benn

The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldham, Syria, Polling, and Benn

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https://twitter.com/OliverRyan95/status/672390646989258753 This week’s podcast reacts to a momentous week in British politics as parliament votes to approve airstrikes in Syria and Labour convincingly holds Oldham West and Royton in Thursday’s by-election. What role has polling played? How strong is Jeremy Corbyn after a tough week and should public opinion really influence complex foreign policy decisions? Finally, how likely is it that Hilary Benn could replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader in the future? Keiran discusses these issues with Rob Vance…

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Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

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LAB 62.2% (+7.5)UKIP 23.3 % (+2.7) CON 9.3% (-9.6) LD 3.7% (+0.0) GR 0.9% (-1.0) MRLP 0.5% (+0.5) via @britainelects pic.twitter.com/1nTrPjwFZC — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2015 Corbyn has done better than Cameron did in his first by election that he defended as leader. This is the result that wasn’t forecast, perhaps Jeremy Corbyn isn’t the voter repellent that the polling and the commentariat implies. Speaking this evening John Curtice has just said we expect the major opposition parties do…

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Betting on a UKIP by-election upset in the absence of hard polling

Betting on a UKIP by-election upset in the absence of hard polling

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More from Aby Tomlinson – the energetic LAB campaigner who tweeted about the responses she was getting in Oldham pic.twitter.com/idnhv91aa9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2015 Alastair Meeks gives his view Oldham West & Royton should have been a spectacularly boring by-election.  It is a previously-safe Labour seat held at the last general election by a leftwing MP with a thumping majority and an absolute majority of votes cast.  To gain it, UKIP would require a swing of 17.1%. …

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