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Tonight’s EURef online polls have it neck and neck

Tonight’s EURef online polls have it neck and neck

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Correction Latest @OpiniumResearch #EURef poll Remain 44 (+1) Leave 42 (+1) Fieldwork 7th June – 10th June https://t.co/lGhkC9rnTz — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 11, 2016 YouGov for Sunday Times:Leave 43%Remain 42% — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 11, 2016 YouGov for Sunday Times:Who is "scaremongering"?41% think Remain have done more, 28% think leave have done more. — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 11, 2016 YouGov/ST 55% think LEAVE exaggerated immigration claims but 49% say they're true63% think REMAIN exaggerated economy claims (40% true)…

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Cyclefree on What Do They Mean By That?

Cyclefree on What Do They Mean By That?

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Embed from Getty Images “What did he mean by that?” Metternich is reported to have said on hearing of the death of Talleyrand, Napoleon’s wily diplomat. The same question will be asked in the Chancelleries of Europe and elsewhere should Britain vote to leave the EU. But perhaps it is a more pertinent question to ask if Britain votes to remain, especially if the winning margin is narrow – as seems likely – and certainly less than the winning margin…

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ORB online poll is an Ode to Joy for Brexiteers as Leave increases their lead to 10%

ORB online poll is an Ode to Joy for Brexiteers as Leave increases their lead to 10%

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ORB ONLINE poll Turnout adjusted Leave 55 (+4) Remain 45 (-4) All voters Leave 53 (+3) Remain (-3) FW Wed/Thur https://t.co/ydJ08al3wi — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2016 ORB Wisdom index Remain 52 Leave 48 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2016 Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6. — John Pienaar (@JPonpolitics) June 10, 2016 The ORB poll has seen a real shift…

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As Andy Burnham speaks about the very real prospect of Brexit, Corbyn should be worried

As Andy Burnham speaks about the very real prospect of Brexit, Corbyn should be worried

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Brexit might mean a leadership challenge for Corbyn via @georgeeaton https://t.co/A3Wh0opYPV pic.twitter.com/Q59jGGHxOg — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2016 When Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary says ‘The Remain campaign is facing the “very real prospect” of defeat in the referendum in two weeks’ time as it fails to reach traditional Labour voters’ it is clear the Remain campaign has issues. Whilst it is clear in the event of Leave winning, David Cameron will voluntarily resign or the Tory Party will revert back to Papua…

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The real winner of the debate last night

The real winner of the debate last night

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Buy Leadsom, sell Boris pic.twitter.com/zc7VLIUXrs — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 To outshine Boris is a real achievement, at 33/1 Andrea Leadsom is still value to be Cameron’s replacement. To overshadow Boris Johnson in a TV debate, is an achievement very few have managed. For that alone she should be worth backing. Her pre political career is something that will appeal to many, especially if the country wants someone who isn’t considered to be a career politician. Going back to…

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The voters’ misconceptions could win this for Leave

The voters’ misconceptions could win this for Leave

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Voters think EU citizens make up 15% of the total UK population when in reality it’s 5% @IpsosMORI finds pic.twitter.com/5gmkamqAPC — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 This could help Leave win This one of my favourite bits of regular polling. Ipsos Mori have compared the perceptions of the voters to the reality.  As we can see the voters’ think there’s more EU citizens here than there actually are. This might explain why Leave are focussing so heavily on immigration in the…

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Would President Hillary Clinton inspire Labour to choose a female leader?

Would President Hillary Clinton inspire Labour to choose a female leader?

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Henry G Manson on the chances of Corbyn’s successor being a woman The Democrats have become the first party in the USA to choose a female Presidential candidate. At 4/11 to become the next President, Clinton has a good chance to be the first female leader of the Free World. Others might shrug about how ground-breaking it is to have a Hillary Rodham Clinton return to the White House – but it is significant. 44 out of 44 of country’s…

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The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

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On this week’s show the Polling Matters team take a break from Brexit to discuss events across the pond. Keiran and Rob are joined by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua to discuss Clinton vs Trump, the states Trump must win to get to 270 electoral college votes and who each candidate might pick as their running mate. You can follow Jon-Christopher at @jcbua Audio only version is here Keiran Pedley