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Author: TSE

Never gonna give EU up. The latest Brexit legal challenge, this time to keep Le Royaume-Uni within the single market

Never gonna give EU up. The latest Brexit legal challenge, this time to keep Le Royaume-Uni within the single market

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Picture: Protester outisde the Supreme Court whilst the Article 50 appeal was being heard We’ve known each other for so long but it’s time to say goodbye to UK membership of the single market. Overnight it was reported Theresa May is facing a fresh legal challenge to her Brexit plans as campaigners prepare to petition the High Court for Britain to stay in the single market.  The claimants, including one Remain and one Leave voter, are seeking a judicial review…

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Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

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Ladbrokes’ odds imply it is a 9% chance that Labour poll below 20% at the next general election, with Corbyn leading Labour I think the chances are higher Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election, which could be less than a couple of months away according to press reports this morning. I think the value is backing sub 20% and here’s why (short answer = Jeremy Corbyn.) The YouGov poll earlier…

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Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

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Boris Johnson’s desire to be Prime Minister is why he will stay & try to make a success of being Foreign Secretary while Mrs May cannot sack him without causing problems for herself. William Hill have a market up on whether Boris Johnson will still be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January 2018. I think despite the events of the summer when Michael Gove’s transformation into the lovechild of Frank Underwood and Niccolò Machiavelli fatally damaged Boris Johnson’s chances…

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After the advocacy, what next for the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court?

After the advocacy, what next for the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court?

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Picture credit: Twitter Alastair Meeks: current odds on the Government winning are value 2016 has had many twists and turns, but from a lawyer’s viewpoint one of the treats has been the unfolding of the Article 50 case.  We have been given the opportunity to observe perhaps the most important case in constitutional law for nearly 200 years. Let’s set to one side the disgraceful behaviour of the press and some extremist politicians in seeking to bludgeon the judiciary into…

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Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

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Saved by der Bellen? Hofer concedes in the Austrian Presidential election. But what does it mean for the EU?https://t.co/RHFJO7cIcW — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2016 Another polling failure? A bit harsh when polls are banned for the final fortnight Austria: … and the polls failed again. #bpw16 #polls #Umfragen #vanderBellen pic.twitter.com/CednTGNVNl — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) December 4, 2016 Latest Italian referendum betting   TSE

In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Court, the public has more than three times the trust in judges than journalists

In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Court, the public has more than three times the trust in judges than journalists

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81% of the public have trust in the enemies of the people, just 24% have trust in journalists @IpsosMORI finds https://t.co/RhdrJI6BYj pic.twitter.com/THZUzyOJ50 — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2016 Ipsos Mori have published their annual veracity index, with the Article 50 case being heard in the UK’s highest appellate court, it was amusing to contrast the trust in the enemies of the people judges compared to journalists. Only Government ministers, and politicians in general are less trusted than journalists, whilst Estate Agents…

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Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP

Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP

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Embed from Getty Images Will Jacob Rees-Mogg defect to UKIP if Mrs May delivers a non-hard Brexit? Paddy Power have a market up whether some politicians will defect by 2018. On initial glance this looks like a market designed to solely enrich Paddy Power, I did think of backing Douglas Carswell doing a Churchill and defecting back, but given the precedent he has set, he won’t wish to inflict another by election on the voters of Clacton, so that’s that…

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The top ten political failures of 2016 – longstanding PBer & political punter, Pulpstar, makes his choice

The top ten political failures of 2016 – longstanding PBer & political punter, Pulpstar, makes his choice

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All political careers end in failure… Theresa May, Corbyn, Trump – Prime Minister, LOTO, POTUS. All going well for them. For now.. 10) Marco Rubio: He was the perfect GOP candidate, smart young and hispanic. The perfect foil to win the key state of Florida… The GOP primaries started off with a bang for little Marco when he scored an amazing third place in Iowa. The pundits were stunned “It shouldn’t be possible” they cried. People rushed to back him…

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