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Author: TSE

Your guide to betting on tomorrow’s Dutch election

Your guide to betting on tomorrow’s Dutch election

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Embed from Getty Images The first of the big 3 elections in EU countries this year After the last Ice Age, Britain and the Netherlands were joined by land. The Thames and the Rhine were part of a single river system.  Following an inundation caused by a megatsunami, the two were separated, ironically, under a torrent of water. In 2016, European politics was hit by the megatsunami of Brexit, separating Britain from the rest of Europe.  Are there previously joined…

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The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now

The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now

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Most polls still have the purples in double figures They are routinely derided by others.  The press loves to print stories of their wackier examples.  They are marginalised.  Their public figures are held up to ridicule.  Yet they make up roughly one in ten of the adult population.  I write, of course, of UKIP supporters. Who are these people?  Where do they come from?  And why, eight months after Leave won the referendum and with the vote being implemented in…

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Northern Ireland election fallout, LAB leadership polling, & budget reaction

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Northern Ireland election fallout, LAB leadership polling, & budget reaction

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1) Part one: Keiran speaks to Mick Fealty of Sluggerotoole.com about what we learned from last week’s elections in Northern Ireland, who the winners and losers were and what happens next… 2) Part two: Keiran discusses this week’s polling of Labour members conducted by YouGov on behalf of Ian Warren at Election Data. Keiran is joined by Laurence Janta-Lipinski and Emma Bean to discuss how vulnerable Corbyn is and who might lead Labour into 2020 if he stands down. The…

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Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add up

Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add up

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Embed from Getty Images Unionism is at a crossroads. But that crossroads has a clear signpost. The signpost was the 2017 Assembly election. Make no mistake, 2017 was a bad election, indeed a terrible election for Unionism. Of the 18-seat reduction caused by the 2016 Act, 16 were lost by Unionists. But look at why those seats were lost. They were lost because Sinn Fein were able to tap into an angry Nationalist pool of voters, stirred up by the…

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Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t assume a Corbynite replaces him.

Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t assume a Corbynite replaces him.

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Corbyn is safe for now argues Keiran Pedley but with his popularity among Labour members falling and Brexit on the horizon he is unlikely to lead Labour into a General Election. Those of you watching Peston yesterday will know that YouGov has a new poll of Labour members out courtesy of Ian Warren of Election Data. 1,096 Labour members were interviewed last week (27 Feb – 3 Mar) and here are some of the key numbers. The first notable data…

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Arron Banks v Douglas Carswell. Let’s get ready to rhumble.

Arron Banks v Douglas Carswell. Let’s get ready to rhumble.

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In yesterday’s Independent Arron Banks, the UKIP donor, said he would definitively stand against Douglas Carswell in Clacton at the next general election, so Paddy Power have a market up on which of those two will receive the most votes at the next general election. If I had to choose I’d go for Carswell to win this bet, because he is very popular in his seat, as evidenced by Carswell holding his seat at the general election unlike the other…

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Les Republicans. You’ve lost that lovin’ Fillon?

Les Republicans. You’ve lost that lovin’ Fillon?

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Fillon puts final decision on his continuing running or not to Républicains party, according to his prepared speech. — Pierre Briançon (@pierrebri) March 5, 2017 Fillon to end speech without saying that he is determined to keep running. Sounds like a resigned farewell, just insisting on his platform — Pierre Briançon (@pierrebri) March 5, 2017 Some Républicains leaders about to offer Fillon a sweetener if he gives up: Juppé would run on his platform. Aka the Frankenstein solution? — Pierre…

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The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means

The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means

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Picture: The front page of yesterday’s Times newspaper. Alastair Meeks, who accurately predicted the outcome of the Article 50 case, looks at the looming Brexit divorce settlement. One of the many points that will be up for discussion as part of Britain leaving the EU is what Britain will pay as part of the divorce settlement, if anything.  Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, is reportedly making a demand for €60 billion his opening gambit.  The UK government, backed up by…

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