Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up, my initial view is that this is market is a good way of contributing to the Paddy Power Christmas bonus fund. Whilst my inner Euro-Federalist might be tempted to back the UK to rejoin the EU at some time in the future, I’d need slightly longer odds but the biggest obstacle is that I don’t fancy tying my money up for maybe the next 33 years. The 1/10 on the UK establishing a…
Picture: Vladimir Putin meeting French Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen. If Putin made Donald Trump President why couldn’t Putin make Corbyn PM? For us political gamblers one of the things we’re now having to factor in to our bets is which candidate or party is Vladimir Putin backing. It just isn’t those gamblers who wear tin foil hats who are wondering about this. Even that well known Democratic Party member and liberal snowflake Dick Cheney recently commented that Russia’s alleged…
William Hill have a market up on whether Paul Nuttall will still be UKIP leader at the end of 2017, to be honest neither of the odds seem attractive to me. After failing so spectacularly in the capital of Brexit against a poor Labour candidate who was the living embodiment of David Cameron’s maxim about Twitter, coupled with the fun with his CV, and Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless leaving UKIP on Nuttall’s watch would all be indicators for someone who…
Looking forward to May 4th On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Colin Rallings from the University of Plymouth to discuss the latest Rallings and Thrasher projections for the coming local elections in May and what they might mean for the wider political environment. Later in the show, Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi to discuss the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey which looks at what voters would be prepared to compromise in the coming Brexit…
Young voters lack political representation says Keiran Pedley. So who is going to step up? One of the topics discussed on the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast was the striking difference in views on Brexit by age. This week saw the first political poll by my company (GfK) for 12 years. One of the questions we asked was whether Brits thought Brexit was the “right decision” or the “wrong decision”. The results can be found in the chart below. Table 1:…
Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Full Rallings & Thrasher forecast NESV compared with 4 years ago is Con 31% (+5), Lab 29% (nc), LD 22% (+9) UKIP 10% (-12). — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Rallings & Thrasher predict Tories will gain seats for UKIP but the Tories could also lose…
Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks looks to follow up on his Dutch success There are few more baffling markets at present than the market on the next French president. It’s a very active market with more than £8 million traded so far, so its oddities can’t be put down to there being few punters. Yet the odds seem very hard to square with the polling. The electoral system is designed to produce a centrist. The voting takes place…
Aged 69, Seneca the Younger had spent many years in the service of the Emperor Nero, but suspecting him of treason, the Emperor ordered him to commit suicide. Seneca cut open the arteries of his own arms and the veins of his legs and knees, but his blood flowed slowly and his death did not come quickly. To hasten the process, he drank poison, but still death eluded him. Finally he was carried into a hot bath and suffocated…