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Author: TSE

Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general election for June 8th of this year

Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general election for June 8th of this year

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Can she satisfy or circumvent The Fixed-term Parliament Act? pic.twitter.com/pkKaBrVPuF — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2017 https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/854275303753043968 Will Labour agree to an early election? Given the polls I can understand why Mrs May is calling a general election, but there’s a few major issues to sort out Can she satisfy the fixed-term parliament act in the vote tomorrow? Will Mrs May receive any backlash, like Gordon Brown, for going back on her word on holding an early election If she…

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Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

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New @YouGov @thetimes poll Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)https://t.co/xyWwshHpSJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 .@YouGov @thetimes The LD have climbed back to 12%, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 For those of us who thought 25% was Labour’s floor, we might need to start re-evaluating our assumptions. Surely Labour and Corbyn can’t carry on like…

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If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you

If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you

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William Hill have a market up on whether John Bercow will be Speaker until 2018. Ordinarily I’m not in favour of backing 1/6 shots, but given that the much hyped attempt by Tory MP James Dudderidge to topple Speaker Bercow turned out to be a bit Spursy* as only five MPs sign motion of no confidence in John Bercow. From that I can conclude there’s no appetite, let alone a majority, in The Commons to topple John Bercow, so I’d expect…

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Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the Lib Dem fightback with Mark Pack, a campaign strategist and expert on the party. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. The SNP lost a referendum and won a landslide. Could the Lib Dems do something similar by becoming the party of Remain voters? This week’s PB/Polling Matters Opinium poll suggests the party could do well with a relentless focus on stopping Brexit. But it…

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Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

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This week YouGov released some fascinating polling on Theresa May and her popularity. As we can see from the above chart it helps explains why Mrs May has such a colossal lead over Jeremy Corbyn on who would make the best Prime Minister and why if Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader at the next general election, the 2020 general election is going to be the electoral equivalent of the Anglo-Zanzibar war. But is her popularity down to Mrs May not…

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Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

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  Tories take 21% lead with @ComResPolls poll for Sunday Mirror/Independent Con 46 (+4) Lab 25 (nc) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 9 (-1) Greens 4 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2017 This ComRes poll indicates Labour are headed for the mother of all beatings at the next general election. Surely with 20% plus leads Labour members will come to their senses and ditch the electoral liability that is is Corbyn Which might explain the support for a new centre…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast: The LD fight back and where they go next + the latest Ashcroft poll

This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast: The LD fight back and where they go next + the latest Ashcroft poll

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  On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Leo is joined by Lib Dem writer and campaign strategist Mark Pack to discuss the Lib Dem fightback and the new Polling Matters / Opinium survey on the party’s prospects. The Lib Dems seem to be recovering in the polls, but how high can they go, where should they look for new voters, should they change leader and can they win the Gorton by-election?  Later in the show, Leo and Mark discuss the…

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Some Brexit special bets

Some Brexit special bets

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Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up, my initial view is that this is market is a good way of contributing to the Paddy Power Christmas bonus fund. Whilst my inner Euro-Federalist might be tempted to back the UK to rejoin the EU at some time in the future, I’d need slightly longer odds but the biggest obstacle is that I don’t fancy tying my money up for maybe the next 33 years. The 1/10 on the UK establishing a…

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