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Perhaps I’ve judged Corbyn wrong as new Ipsos MORI poll sees Corbyn’s Labour catapult 8% to 34%

Perhaps I’ve judged Corbyn wrong as new Ipsos MORI poll sees Corbyn’s Labour catapult 8% to 34%

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Latest @IpsosMORI poll for The @standardnews Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)https://t.co/duZvfM95v3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 18, 2017   Today’s Ipsos MORI poll lived it to its being a cracker hype. Having been a trenchant critic of Corbyn I’m struggling to comprehend a world where he polls a share of the vote close to that which delivered majorities for both Tony Blair and David Cameron. As it stands the Tories won’t…

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Looking at how undecided voters might vote in this general election, if they do vote.

Looking at how undecided voters might vote in this general election, if they do vote.

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Intro/ YouGov’s @adammcdonnell21 looks at undecided voters and how they are likely to vote https://t.co/V6mVf7uOQ4 — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 1/ There are 3 types of undecided voters:1. On the verge of deciding2. Probably won’t vote3. True undecidedhttps://t.co/V6mVf7ddru — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 2/ Some undecided voters are simply on the verge of deciding – their voting intention looks much like decided voters https://t.co/V6mVf7uOQ4 pic.twitter.com/LxjuLAwRDW — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 3/ Some undecided voters…

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Emily Thornberry lures Sir Michael Fallon into possibly the greatest ambush since the battle of Lake Trasimene

Emily Thornberry lures Sir Michael Fallon into possibly the greatest ambush since the battle of Lake Trasimene

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Sofa chat with Michael Fallon and @EmilyThornberry #marr pic.twitter.com/7Ji3UJz156 — The Andrew Marr Show (@MarrShow) May 14, 2017 Note: This video contains language NSFW from Emily Thornberry that maybe offend more delicate PBers. This morning Sir Michael Fallon managed to achieve something that I thought was very unlikely, he managed to come off worse in a discussion about defence/security with a member of Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet, The Telegraph report Emily Thornberry has accused Sir Michael Fallon of talking “bollocks”…

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Backing Labour to win the popular vote on June 8th

Backing Labour to win the popular vote on June 8th

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A 5% return in less than four weeks? William Hill have a market up on who will win the popular vote without the Tories. With the SNP standing in only Scotland, then finishing second  in the popular vote is impossible unless turnout somehow craters in the rest of the United Kindgom, so that’s not an option. UKIP winning this bet is very unlikely given they are standing 254 fewer candidates than Labour and in some polls are down to 3%….

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12 seats to watch

12 seats to watch

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The general election result will be made up of the results of 650 individual battles.  Some will be very predictable.  Here are twelve seats that will help to determine how the next Parliament will be comprised. Norwich South As a proud Norfolk boy, I can say that there’s something funny in the water in this constituency.  It had been held by the Lib Dems until 2015, and Clive Lewis made an instant impact on his election.  He is already regularly…

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The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?

The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?

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Embed from Getty Images Everyone seems to agree: Labour are in for a pummelling at the upcoming general election.  The opinion polls, the local election results and the anonymous comments from politicians of all parties on the campaign trail all point in the same direction. Even the newspaper pundits, constantly looking for a new angle, are unanimously predicting a Conservative landslide.  Few, however, have tried to put numbers on the eventual outcome. This fool is going to rush in.  I’ve…

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Terms of Endearment

Terms of Endearment

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Embed from Getty Images   “Tain’t What You Do (It’s The Way That You Do It) sang Ella.  “That’s what gets results.”  A lesson the EU and the British government might usefully tattoo on their respective foreheads as they embark on post-Article 50 negotiations.  Or try to.  Nine months on from the referendum and two months since Article 50 was formally triggered, both the EU and Britain are still shouting at each other in a way familiar to divorce lawyers…

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Is Theresa May planning on toppling Tim Farron?

Is Theresa May planning on toppling Tim Farron?

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https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/860412293145923584 Could Tim Farron losing his seat be the shock of June 8th? I found the above tweet fascinating, Jim Waterson of Buzzfeed analysed which seats the Tories are targeting by looking at the ad buys in local newspapers. The one that caught my attention was Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency of Tim Farron. The symbolism of Tim Farron, the arch remainer and and advocate of another referendum, losing his seat on June 8th would  be yet another blow to…

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