Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)https://t.co/duZvfM95v3
— TSE (@TSEofPB) May 18, 2017
Today’s Ipsos MORI poll lived it to its being a cracker hype.
Having been a trenchant critic of Corbyn I’m struggling to comprehend a world where he polls a share of the vote close to that which delivered majorities for both Tony Blair and David Cameron.
As it stands the Tories won’t be too alarmed by Labour going up 8% and hitting 34% whilst the Tories poll at 49%.
This is a devastating poll for Tim Farron and the Lib Dems, who are in danger of becoming the Ronny Rosenthal of British politics.
To poll 7% whilst Labour are led by Corbyn and the Lib Dems have been targeting the 48% is truly dire and reflects poorly on Farron. From the outside it looks like the Lib Dems have been running a (South West London) by election strategy instead of a general election strategy.
Of course this might be an outlier/Labour manifesto bounce but the 7% in this poll isn’t inconsistent with other polls. I think this might be evidence of people not wanting to give the Tories a stonking majority.
The big polling picture is that LAB has established itself as the main ANTI-CON party
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2017
Regardless of your view on whether Labour's polling is accurate, pretty clear Corbyn having a good campaign, albeit from a very low base
— Laurence Janta-Lipinski (@jantalipinski) May 18, 2017
Though “Gideon Skinner, head of political polling at Ipsos MORI, said: “Labour shouldn’t get too carried away by the rise they see in the polls. “The focus on their manifesto may have helped them this week, but on many fundamentals such as leadership the public still puts them a long way behind the Conservatives, and their vote is much softer, with one in six of their supporters considering voting for Theresa May’s party.”