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Author: TSE

Tick tock. Betting on the date of the UK’s exit from the EU

Tick tock. Betting on the date of the UK’s exit from the EU

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Is it going to be March 29 next year? Can you hear it? That is the sound of inevitability. Shambolic though the government’s preparations have been for Brexit, failing to explain its proposals to the public, the EU or even itself, the time to exit continues to approach. When the government gave notice under Article 50, a two year timetable was set in motion. That will expire at 11pm (GMT) on Friday 29 March 2019. Nothing the government has done…

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The day of the husky?

The day of the husky?

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Picture credit : WWF One of David Cameron’s early and later much-derided moves was to go to the Arctic to be seen hugging a husky: I hope it won’t be seen as partisan to say that few of us felt that Cameron had a deep-seated love of huskies: we were all clear that it was symbolic. He was detoxifying the Tories – not just about harsh efficiency, but caring about the environment too. Ultimately, though, the environment was seen as…

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Betting on who will be Philip Hammond’s successor

Betting on who will be Philip Hammond’s successor

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Why Mrs May might replace her Chancellor with someone who appeals to the hardline Leavers in her party. It is well known that many hardline Leavers want Philip Hammond sacked as Chancellor, I can see certainly envisage a scenario where Mrs May sacks Mr Hammond to save her own skin. To paraphrase Jeremy Thorpe, greater love hath no woman than this, that she lay down her friends for her life. Plus Mrs May appears not to be very keen on Philip…

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Boundary conditions. How Brexit might be helping to lay the ground for the SNP

Boundary conditions. How Brexit might be helping to lay the ground for the SNP

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Some international boundaries are easy to understand. The Pyrenees form a natural frontier between Spain and France. The Kattegat conveniently separates Sweden and Denmark. While in the past each pair of countries has seen their border shift over time, the current resting place looks very natural. The boundary between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not come in that category. There are few obvious natural boundaries along the route. Donegal is almost cut off from the rest of…

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The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

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In some ways, the 2017 election went as expected for the Conservative party. When the election was called on 18 April, the seven polls that had been published so far that month had averaged 43.3%. When the election was held on 8 June, the Conservatives tallied 42.4%. Any soothsayer would have been happy with that degree of accuracy. This represented a net increase of 5.5% of the vote share on the 2015 result. Clearly the Conservative message gathered new recruits….

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Things are so bad with Mrs May that some Tory MPs want Nick Timothy back to provide direction

Things are so bad with Mrs May that some Tory MPs want Nick Timothy back to provide direction

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Well this is how bad Mrs May's indecision over Brexit is, some Tory MPs want her to bring back Nick Timothy. Top scoop as usual from @ShippersUnbound. https://t.co/OM7N4jXzRO pic.twitter.com/oAoe2tWbZP — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 11, 2018 It is clear that whatever decision makes on Brexit it will likely hasten Mrs May’s departure. The Sunday Times say The standard bearer of the hardliners, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has privately told colleagues he would be a lot more relaxed “if we knew what we were…

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A few assorted bets for your perusal

A few assorted bets for your perusal

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William Hill have a few markets on various events, a lot of these appear designed to enrich William Hill or ones that I wish William Hill offered the other side of the bet. I’d really like to bet on UK GDP growth to be lower than 1.8% one calendar year after Brexit. The 4/7 on the Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives seems like the safest bet. On the principle on betting on something NOT happening…

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Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

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Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a…

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