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A Nation once again? – Part 3 lessons from abroad

A Nation once again? – Part 3 lessons from abroad

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In the final of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs There are numerous examples of states being put together in modern times.  The closest and probably most studied is Germany. It is almost at 30 years since the wall came down so there is quite a period to look at. The situation is also not that dissimilar to Ireland  – a larger more prosperous neighbour takes over its sizeable but smaller struggling neighbour.  How has Germany fared? Unity is…

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A Nation once again?  Part 2 – Culture and politics

A Nation once again?  Part 2 – Culture and politics

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In the second of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs In the previous article I looked at economics which is quite a hurdle. This article looks at the longer term issue of the impact of putting two sets of people  together. In Ulster the past always lies ahead of us,  so somewhere along the line somebody needs to be squaring circles. The North, trapped in its history and with a victim mentality, somehow needs to fit in to a fast…

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A Nation once again ? – Part 1  The economics

A Nation once again ? – Part 1  The economics

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In the first of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs The fallout from the Brexit vote has led to  more interest in the future of Northern Ireland than is usual. In particular the issue of a one state Ireland has bubbled back to the top of the political discussion with, as ever, strong views on either side The modern Irish state is not the Ireland of old; it is a successful, self-confident country which has worked its way to…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Will May reach and deal and can she get it through parliament if she does?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Will May reach and deal and can she get it through parliament if she does?

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This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts: In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by Peter McLeod (Vice President at pollster GQR) to explore what the public think of “Chequers” and what they expect from any Brexit deal May brings back. It turns out that Chequers is more popular than you might think in the right context – but is that the context the Prime Minister’s eventual deal will ultimately be seen in? Keiran and…

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However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market

However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market

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It’s getting messy.  In truth, that was always on the cards after the general election result.  The public in their wisdom delivered a Parliament with no overall majority, with two main parties both formally committed to implementing Brexit and neither sharing any kind of consensus over what that meant in practice.  Theresa May has spent the last 16 months navigating between competing interest groups, endlessly deferring decisions, endlessly conceding ground whenever short term coalitions formed against her and evading final…

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Who will be the face of the new £50 note?

Who will be the face of the new £50 note?

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Picture: The latest odds by Ladbrokes, others are available. In these highly partisan times I’d rule out any politician, with the exception of Clement Attlee. Attlee’s role in winning World War Two and setting up NATO & the NHS marks as him as a truly great politician that transcends normal politics. I expect the campaign to get Mrs Thatcher as the face of the new £50 note will be doomed despite her worthy qualities, sadly there’s parts of the country that would…

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Will Theresa May be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference?

Will Theresa May be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference?

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Why I’m betting on Theresa May to still be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory party conference. This Paddy Power market is essentially a bet on Mrs May getting a deal done and passed in the Commons. Iff she manages to achieve those two things then I’d expect Mrs May and the Tories to get a boost in the polls so ditching her straight away might not be possible. With Boris Johnson confirming once again he is the modern day…

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A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

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The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 13, 2018 History suggests assuming Kippers will strongly back the Tories when UKIP don’t stand is a mistake. Since the announcement of the Chequers deal in July UKIP have experienced a bit of a polling surge with some polls having them polling 7% and 8% but generally in the 4% to 6% range. I’m expecting UKIP at the next general election will repeat…

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