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The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election

The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election

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Twitter, are we not going to spend the day using Peterborough to share dodgy maths & bar charts like we did after the European elections? If so then it's … Leave 51%Remain 46% Are we not doing that? No? How come?Oh. pic.twitter.com/ZPjmtoXYOi — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 7, 2019 fwiw, the Brexit Party didn't do that great in the Euro elections in Peterborough compared to the local 2016 Leave vote Peterborough was BXP's 54th weakest relative performance out of 334…

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There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prime Minister

There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prime Minister

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Why Mrs May could end up remaining Prime Minister a lot longer than we think The Guardian reports Boris Johnson could avoid facing an immediate confidence vote in his premiership if he becomes Conservative leader, as ministers are considering whether to send MPs home early for their summer break before the new prime minister is announced. Mel Stride, the new leader of the House of Commons, aroused suspicions that the Conservatives are plotting to put off a confidence vote for their…

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Flashback Wednesday

Flashback Wednesday

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Here were the Next Prime Minister odds immediately after Theresa May took over in July 2016. pic.twitter.com/BXALM3ZKv0 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 4, 2019 I found this tweet illuminating and amusing. Only three of the eleven on that list are likely to succeed Mrs May, four if you include Corbyn. The most amusing thing is the enduring mystery about David Miliband’s price when it comes to these type of markets. He was the same odds as Michael Gove and Sajid…

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Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

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Obviously, you should not treat opinion polls very seriously at all, especially when no general election is on hand. Respondents are being asked an artificial question (there is no general election tomorrow) with no real-world consequences hanging on their answer.  You might be getting a general expression of enthusiasm for a particular credo, a message to the voter’s normal choice or simply a casual choice made without much thought, and that’s before you get into the methodological adjustments that the pollsters…

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In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

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Conservatives announce first round ballot for the leadership race next Thursday, then all wrapped up the following week to decide final two. New PM week beginning July 22 pic.twitter.com/k9nWG5blat — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 4, 2019 The first round of voting begins a week on Thursday. Today the Conservative party announced the schedule and rules in the contest to succeed Mrs May. The biggest changes are the nomination threshold which seems to rule out five candidates based on the…

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The successor to Sir Vince Cable might currently be in another party

The successor to Sir Vince Cable might currently be in another party

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Heidi Allen, and the former Labour MP Chuka Umunna, are among those thought to be considering defecting to Lib Dems https://t.co/JdN3aRrrCn — Lisa O'Carroll (@lisaocarroll) June 4, 2019 I’m told Sarah Wollaston is leaving Change UK. — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) June 4, 2019 It appears Change UK might be about to undergo some fundamental change, The Guardian report that Up to half of Change UK’s MPs are poised to leave the fledgling political party after its dismal performance in the European elections….

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The Trump buzzword bingo market

The Trump buzzword bingo market

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Donald Trump is 3/1 to mention "Liverpool" during his press conference tomorrow.Anything else we should add to the Buzzword Bingo list?https://t.co/7uuzMAdMxE pic.twitter.com/4P6QlWo49Y — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 3, 2019 What will Trump say in his press conference today? Because of my consistent record in these buzzword bingo markets I view these markets as my contribution to the Christmas bonus fund for Shadsy even before we consider that someone as volatile and rambling as Donald Trump is the focus of this…

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