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Author: TSE

Red Letter Day. Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of being next Prime Minister

Red Letter Day. Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of being next Prime Minister

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It used to be so easy. For the period after the 2017 general election when Theresa May was Prime Minister, all you had to do was take advantage of Jeremy Corbyn’s enthusiasts and regularly lay him for next Prime Minister at the short prices that prevailed. Since she had made it plain that she was not going to fight the next election, so the circumstances in which he would be next Prime Minister were very limited indeed.   He wasn’t the…

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A man of principles. Boris Johnson and the EU

A man of principles. Boris Johnson and the EU

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If consistency is the sign of a small mind, then Boris Johnson must have a brain the size of a planet. For he has slid from position to position on the EU like Bambi on ice. In 2003, he opened a speech to the House of Commons, in which he advocated Turkish membership of the EU, thus:  “It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly…

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What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?

What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?

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I really don’t know much about economics and the intricacies of how and interest rates are set by the Bank of England, looking at this market from Paddy Power is a bit like pinning the tail on the donkey for me. My theory on this market is that is Project Fear turns out to be very close to Project Reality then Sterling will seriously and quickly tank as we head to No Deal. The only time I can remember a…

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Meet the next Prime Minister. Maybe

Meet the next Prime Minister. Maybe

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Could this former member of the Monday Club be our next Prime Minister? John Bercow as Prime Minister seems outlandish even in these interesting times. There’s not enough bandwdith on the information superhighway to list all the reasons why this is a bad idea or why John Bercow is so unsuited to be Prime Minister but given the desperation amongst MPs to stop a No Deal Brexit then something outlandish needs to happen. Do I think Bercow has the ego to…

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Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit

Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit

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His letter’s a strategic mistake The real fight starts here. Jeremy Corbyn has written to other opposition party leaders suggesting that if he calls a vote of no confidence in the government, he stands ready to lead a temporary government to obtain an extension to the Article 50 notice and then call a general election. Perplexingly, this ecumenical offer has met with a cool reception. The Lib Dems have given him the thumbs down on the ground that he would…

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Combination therapy. An occasional reminder that using seat predictors on current polling is stupid

Combination therapy. An occasional reminder that using seat predictors on current polling is stupid

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You see it happen regularly, on here and on twitter. A new opinion poll comes out, showing dramatic news. Immediately, we decamp to Electoral Calculus and Flavible, to discover that such a poll, if replicated at a general election, would produce a hung Parliament with Plaid Cymru the largest party, able to form a coalition with the Greens and Lady Sylvia Hermon. The oracles have spoken. “Cor blimey”, we expostulate. Why do we do it? At a time when the…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

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I don’t, unlike Dominic Cummings, think that No Deal is unstoppable. Parliament can stop it if it wants to. But let’s suppose that Mr Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the EU on October 31. Let’s further assume that he calls an election soon afterwards.  His pitch is obvious. “I said I’d get you out and I have. Now we need to charge whole-heartedly into the green fields awaiting us. I want to show you how great life will…

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Will Corbyn be Labour leader at the next general election?

Will Corbyn be Labour leader at the next general election?

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At first glance this market from Ladbrokes seems like an easy way to earn a 40% return as it seems we are headed for an early election with Boris Johnson’s actions indicating that’s where we will end up. An early election gives no realistic way for Corbyn to be removed or stand down as Labour leader. With no honeymoon BJ for the Tories first in Brecon & Radnorshire and ComRes now having the Tories one per cent behind Labour, only…

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